The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 mass protests, economic turmoil from rial depreciation and sanctions, and the 2026 Iran war—including U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—underpins traders’ strong consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces conducted a severe crackdown that largely quelled nationwide unrest by early 2026, while a constitutional interim council and swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei preserved institutional continuity. As of June 2026, officials have sustained governance, pursued negotiations with economic preconditions, and framed survival through 100 days of conflict as a strategic success. These factors, combined with the regime’s decentralized command structures and history of weathering internal and external pressure, explain the 84.5% implied probability that the Islamic Republic will remain intact through 2026.
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$19,703,219 Vol.
$19,703,219 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
$19,703,219 Vol.
$19,703,219 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 mass protests, economic turmoil from rial depreciation and sanctions, and the 2026 Iran war—including U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—underpins traders’ strong consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces conducted a severe crackdown that largely quelled nationwide unrest by early 2026, while a constitutional interim council and swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei preserved institutional continuity. As of June 2026, officials have sustained governance, pursued negotiations with economic preconditions, and framed survival through 100 days of conflict as a strategic success. These factors, combined with the regime’s decentralized command structures and history of weathering internal and external pressure, explain the 84.5% implied probability that the Islamic Republic will remain intact through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$19,703,219Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 mass protests, economic turmoil from rial depreciation and sanctions, and the 2026 Iran war—including U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—underpins traders’ strong consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces conducted a severe crackdown that largely quelled nationwide unrest by early 2026, while a constitutional interim council and swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei preserved institutional continuity. As of June 2026, officials have sustained governance, pursued negotiations with economic preconditions, and framed survival through 100 days of conflict as a strategic success. These factors, combined with the regime’s decentralized command structures and history of weathering internal and external pressure, explain the 84.5% implied probability that the Islamic Republic will remain intact through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$19,703,652Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 mass protests, economic turmoil from rial depreciation and sanctions, and the 2026 Iran war—including U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—underpins traders’ strong consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces conducted a severe crackdown that largely quelled nationwide unrest by early 2026, while a constitutional interim council and swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei preserved institutional continuity. As of June 2026, officials have sustained governance, pursued negotiations with economic preconditions, and framed survival through 100 days of conflict as a strategic success. These factors, combined with the regime’s decentralized command structures and history of weathering internal and external pressure, explain the 84.5% implied probability that the Islamic Republic will remain intact through 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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