Intense Russian drone and missile barrages on April 15-16, one of the war's largest strikes killing at least 17, underscore ongoing escalation and anchor trader consensus at 95.8% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31. A brief Orthodox Easter truce April 11-12 held temporarily but saw mutual violation accusations, while Zelensky's prior proposals met Russian rejection amid irreconcilable demands—Russia insists on territorial concessions and demilitarization, Ukraine deems them unacceptable. No substantive negotiations have advanced in Geneva talks or elsewhere, with Russian offensives persisting in key sectors like Hulyaipole despite Ukrainian drone gains. High confidence reflects this attrition stalemate, though sudden U.S.-brokered diplomacy, leadership changes, or battlefield collapse could shift odds before the deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया31 मई, 2026 तक रूस और यूक्रेन के बीच संघर्ष विराम?
31 मई, 2026 तक रूस और यूक्रेन के बीच संघर्ष विराम?
हाँ
$507,595 वॉल्यूम
$507,595 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$507,595 वॉल्यूम
$507,595 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Intense Russian drone and missile barrages on April 15-16, one of the war's largest strikes killing at least 17, underscore ongoing escalation and anchor trader consensus at 95.8% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31. A brief Orthodox Easter truce April 11-12 held temporarily but saw mutual violation accusations, while Zelensky's prior proposals met Russian rejection amid irreconcilable demands—Russia insists on territorial concessions and demilitarization, Ukraine deems them unacceptable. No substantive negotiations have advanced in Geneva talks or elsewhere, with Russian offensives persisting in key sectors like Hulyaipole despite Ukrainian drone gains. High confidence reflects this attrition stalemate, though sudden U.S.-brokered diplomacy, leadership changes, or battlefield collapse could shift odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$507,595समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Intense Russian drone and missile barrages on April 15-16, one of the war's largest strikes killing at least 17, underscore ongoing escalation and anchor trader consensus at 95.8% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31. A brief Orthodox Easter truce April 11-12 held temporarily but saw mutual violation accusations, while Zelensky's prior proposals met Russian rejection amid irreconcilable demands—Russia insists on territorial concessions and demilitarization, Ukraine deems them unacceptable. No substantive negotiations have advanced in Geneva talks or elsewhere, with Russian offensives persisting in key sectors like Hulyaipole despite Ukrainian drone gains. High confidence reflects this attrition stalemate, though sudden U.S.-brokered diplomacy, leadership changes, or battlefield collapse could shift odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
वॉल्यूम
$507,595समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Intense Russian drone and missile barrages on April 15-16, one of the war's largest strikes killing at least 17, underscore ongoing escalation and anchor trader consensus at 95.8% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31. A brief Orthodox Easter truce April 11-12 held temporarily but saw mutual violation accusations, while Zelensky's prior proposals met Russian rejection amid irreconcilable demands—Russia insists on territorial concessions and demilitarization, Ukraine deems them unacceptable. No substantive negotiations have advanced in Geneva talks or elsewhere, with Russian offensives persisting in key sectors like Hulyaipole despite Ukrainian drone gains. High confidence reflects this attrition stalemate, though sudden U.S.-brokered diplomacy, leadership changes, or battlefield collapse could shift odds before the deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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