U.S. nuclear testing policy remains shaped by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992 and ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that rely on subcritical experiments and advanced simulations rather than explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to pursue testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—following administration assessments of low-yield activities by those states—has kept the possibility of resumed underground explosive tests under active review, though subsequent statements have clarified that near-term efforts focus on non-explosive system and hydronuclear tests. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, diplomatic risks to the CTBT framework, and continued emphasis on science-based certification all limit near-term prospects for a full-yield test. Traders monitor administration budget requests, NNSA milestones, and any new compliance reports for signals that could shift implied probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअमेरिका द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?
अमेरिका द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?
$795,539 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
30 सितंबर, 2026
1%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
6%
$795,539 वॉल्यूम
30 सितंबर, 2026
$57,808 वॉल्यूम
1%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
$76,920 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear testing policy remains shaped by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992 and ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that rely on subcritical experiments and advanced simulations rather than explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to pursue testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—following administration assessments of low-yield activities by those states—has kept the possibility of resumed underground explosive tests under active review, though subsequent statements have clarified that near-term efforts focus on non-explosive system and hydronuclear tests. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, diplomatic risks to the CTBT framework, and continued emphasis on science-based certification all limit near-term prospects for a full-yield test. Traders monitor administration budget requests, NNSA milestones, and any new compliance reports for signals that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$795,539समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear testing policy remains shaped by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992 and ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that rely on subcritical experiments and advanced simulations rather than explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to pursue testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—following administration assessments of low-yield activities by those states—has kept the possibility of resumed underground explosive tests under active review, though subsequent statements have clarified that near-term efforts focus on non-explosive system and hydronuclear tests. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, diplomatic risks to the CTBT framework, and continued emphasis on science-based certification all limit near-term prospects for a full-yield test. Traders monitor administration budget requests, NNSA milestones, and any new compliance reports for signals that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$795,539समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...U.S. nuclear testing policy remains shaped by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992 and ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that rely on subcritical experiments and advanced simulations rather than explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to pursue testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—following administration assessments of low-yield activities by those states—has kept the possibility of resumed underground explosive tests under active review, though subsequent statements have clarified that near-term efforts focus on non-explosive system and hydronuclear tests. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, diplomatic risks to the CTBT framework, and continued emphasis on science-based certification all limit near-term prospects for a full-yield test. Traders monitor administration budget requests, NNSA milestones, and any new compliance reports for signals that could shift implied probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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