This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of its capacity and intent toward NATO members. U.S. intelligence assessments have highlighted elevated risks of limited gray-zone or hybrid actions—such as sabotage, unmarked incursions, or border probes—potentially targeting the Baltic states as early as fall 2026, driven by Russia’s efforts to rebuild conventional forces and exploit perceived alliance divisions. NATO has responded with eastern flank reinforcements and updated defense planning, while European officials emphasize the need for rapid capability expansion to deter escalation. Full-scale conventional invasion remains viewed as less probable in the near term due to Ukrainian resistance and alliance deterrence, though analysts note that prolonged stalemate or shifts in U.S. commitment could alter Russian risk calculations. Upcoming factors include the trajectory of Ukraine peace talks and Russia’s arms production trajectory through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of its capacity and intent toward NATO members. U.S. intelligence assessments have highlighted elevated risks of limited gray-zone or hybrid actions—such as sabotage, unmarked incursions, or border probes—potentially targeting the Baltic states as early as fall 2026, driven by Russia’s efforts to rebuild conventional forces and exploit perceived alliance divisions. NATO has responded with eastern flank reinforcements and updated defense planning, while European officials emphasize the need for rapid capability expansion to deter escalation. Full-scale conventional invasion remains viewed as less probable in the near term due to Ukrainian resistance and alliance deterrence, though analysts note that prolonged stalemate or shifts in U.S. commitment could alter Russian risk calculations. Upcoming factors include the trajectory of Ukraine peace talks and Russia’s arms production trajectory through 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
May 4 2026
NATO steps up Arctic readiness as Russia expands submarine fleet
Reports of increased Russian submarine activity in the High North and NATO’s Arctic response were covered by Bloomberg. Though not a direct invasion threat, the story reinforced a perception of renewed Russian aggression, contributing to the market’s modest rebound to 3 % before the final slide to 2 %.
Apr 22 2026
Dutch intelligence says Russia could be ready for NATO conflict within a year
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
The MIVD’s annual report warned that Russia could be ready to launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the Ukraine war ending, aiming for limited territorial gains. The assessment raised concerns about a possible Russian offensive, pushing the market’s Yes probability up to 5 % in late‑April.
Apr 21 2026
Dutch Intelligence Report States Russia-NATO Conflict Delayed as Long as Ukraine War Continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report concluded that a conventional Russian attack on NATO is virtually out of the question while hostilities in Ukraine persist, though Russia could prepare within a year after they end.
Apr 20 2026
NATO intercepts Russian bombers over the Baltic Sea
NATO forces intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea. The visible Russian air activity near NATO’s eastern flank heightened perceived invasion risk, supporting the upward move to 5 % in the market.
Mar 31 2026
French Air Force General Projects Potential Russian Test of NATO Strength for 2028-2029
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
General Dominique Tardif stated that Russia might test NATO's resolve in the 2028-2029 timeframe, reinforcing the consensus that an invasion is not imminent in 2026.
Mar 9 2026
Lithuania warns of Russian troop and missile buildup near NATO borders
Lithuania’s threat assessment reported expansion of Russian brigades into divisions and a new Iskander‑M missile brigade near Kaliningrad. The report warned of accelerated Russian buildup, which initially lifted market odds but later contributed to a gradual decline as analysts judged the buildup insufficient for a near‑term invasion.
Mar 6 2026
Lithuanian Intelligence Warns Russia Prepares for Long-Term NATO Conflict but Faces Near-Term Constraints
Lithuania's annual national threat assessment highlighted that Russia is actively restructuring its military for a potential medium-to-long-term conflict with NATO, but its immediate capacity remains heavily constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Nov 19 2025
Swedish Chief of Defense warns Russia likely to test NATO's Article 5 soon
On November 19, Sweden's top military official stated that Russia is prepared to take enormous strategic risks and is likely to test NATO's collective defense pledge (Article 5) soon, especially in the Baltic states. This statement reflected ongoing hybrid and military threats but no confirmed invasion, aligning with the market's low probability for a Russian invasion of NATO territory in 2025.
Nov 17 2025
EU Defense Commissioner warns Russia may attack NATO country within 2-4 years
On November 17, the EU Commissioner for Defense and Space warned that intelligence from several European countries indicates Russian President Putin could be ready to test NATO's Article 5 within the next two to four years, before 2030. This official warning highlighted long-term risks but did not indicate an imminent invasion, consistent with the market's low probability assessment during the period.
Nov 7 2025
German General Warns Russia Could Launch Limited Attack on NATO at Any Time
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
A top German military official warned that Russia possesses the capacity to execute a limited attack on NATO territory, though the decision depends heavily on NATO's deterrence posture.
Oct 13 2025
German intelligence warns of new level of Russian attacks on Europe
On October 13, the German Foreign Intelligence Service president stated that Russian attacks on Europe have reached a new level of confrontation, with Russia probing borders and destabilizing NATO countries through hybrid warfare. This assessment underscored the ongoing threat but also indicated that Russia was not yet conducting a direct military invasion of NATO territory, maintaining market skepticism about an imminent invasion.
Oct 11 2025
UK, US, NATO flew 12-hour patrol on Russian border amid Ukraine war
On October 11, the UK announced that Royal Air Force aircraft joined a 12-hour NATO patrol near Russia's border following a series of Russian drone and aircraft incursions into NATO airspace. This joint operation demonstrated NATO's increased vigilance and military readiness to deter Russian provocations near its borders, contributing to market perceptions of a low likelihood of a full Russian invasion of NATO territory.
Oct 6 2025
ISW Reports Russia Entering 'Phase 0' of Preparations for NATO Conflict
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's surge in hybrid attacks and drone incursions indicates it has entered 'Phase 0' of psychological and informational preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
Sep 25 2025
Russia Accuses NATO and EU of Waging 'Real War' via Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western allies of direct involvement in a 'real war' against Russia, escalating diplomatic tensions as airspace violations continued.
Sep 23 2025
NATO Warns Russia Over Escalating Airspace Violations
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Following airspace violations in Poland, Romania, and Estonia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Russia that the alliance would use all necessary military and non-military tools to defend itself.
Sep 23 2025
NATO warns Russia it will use all means to defend airspace after incursions
On September 23, NATO publicly warned Russia that it would employ all necessary military and non-military tools to defend its airspace following recent Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO member states' airspace, including Poland and Estonia. This heightened alert and NATO's commitment to Article 5 reassured markets that NATO would respond firmly to any Russian aggression against its members, limiting perceived invasion risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of its capacity and intent toward NATO members. U.S. intelligence assessments have highlighted elevated risks of limited gray-zone or hybrid actions—such as sabotage, unmarked incursions, or border probes—potentially targeting the Baltic states as early as fall 2026, driven by Russia’s efforts to rebuild conventional forces and exploit perceived alliance divisions. NATO has responded with eastern flank reinforcements and updated defense planning, while European officials emphasize the need for rapid capability expansion to deter escalation. Full-scale conventional invasion remains viewed as less probable in the near term due to Ukrainian resistance and alliance deterrence, though analysts note that prolonged stalemate or shifts in U.S. commitment could alter Russian risk calculations. Upcoming factors include the trajectory of Ukraine peace talks and Russia’s arms production trajectory through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of its capacity and intent toward NATO members. U.S. intelligence assessments have highlighted elevated risks of limited gray-zone or hybrid actions—such as sabotage, unmarked incursions, or border probes—potentially targeting the Baltic states as early as fall 2026, driven by Russia’s efforts to rebuild conventional forces and exploit perceived alliance divisions. NATO has responded with eastern flank reinforcements and updated defense planning, while European officials emphasize the need for rapid capability expansion to deter escalation. Full-scale conventional invasion remains viewed as less probable in the near term due to Ukrainian resistance and alliance deterrence, though analysts note that prolonged stalemate or shifts in U.S. commitment could alter Russian risk calculations. Upcoming factors include the trajectory of Ukraine peace talks and Russia’s arms production trajectory through 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
May 4 2026
NATO steps up Arctic readiness as Russia expands submarine fleet
Reports of increased Russian submarine activity in the High North and NATO’s Arctic response were covered by Bloomberg. Though not a direct invasion threat, the story reinforced a perception of renewed Russian aggression, contributing to the market’s modest rebound to 3 % before the final slide to 2 %.
Apr 22 2026
Dutch intelligence says Russia could be ready for NATO conflict within a year
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
The MIVD’s annual report warned that Russia could be ready to launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the Ukraine war ending, aiming for limited territorial gains. The assessment raised concerns about a possible Russian offensive, pushing the market’s Yes probability up to 5 % in late‑April.
Apr 21 2026
Dutch Intelligence Report States Russia-NATO Conflict Delayed as Long as Ukraine War Continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report concluded that a conventional Russian attack on NATO is virtually out of the question while hostilities in Ukraine persist, though Russia could prepare within a year after they end.
Apr 20 2026
NATO intercepts Russian bombers over the Baltic Sea
NATO forces intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea. The visible Russian air activity near NATO’s eastern flank heightened perceived invasion risk, supporting the upward move to 5 % in the market.
Mar 31 2026
French Air Force General Projects Potential Russian Test of NATO Strength for 2028-2029
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
General Dominique Tardif stated that Russia might test NATO's resolve in the 2028-2029 timeframe, reinforcing the consensus that an invasion is not imminent in 2026.
Mar 9 2026
Lithuania warns of Russian troop and missile buildup near NATO borders
Lithuania’s threat assessment reported expansion of Russian brigades into divisions and a new Iskander‑M missile brigade near Kaliningrad. The report warned of accelerated Russian buildup, which initially lifted market odds but later contributed to a gradual decline as analysts judged the buildup insufficient for a near‑term invasion.
Mar 6 2026
Lithuanian Intelligence Warns Russia Prepares for Long-Term NATO Conflict but Faces Near-Term Constraints
Lithuania's annual national threat assessment highlighted that Russia is actively restructuring its military for a potential medium-to-long-term conflict with NATO, but its immediate capacity remains heavily constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Nov 19 2025
Swedish Chief of Defense warns Russia likely to test NATO's Article 5 soon
On November 19, Sweden's top military official stated that Russia is prepared to take enormous strategic risks and is likely to test NATO's collective defense pledge (Article 5) soon, especially in the Baltic states. This statement reflected ongoing hybrid and military threats but no confirmed invasion, aligning with the market's low probability for a Russian invasion of NATO territory in 2025.
Nov 17 2025
EU Defense Commissioner warns Russia may attack NATO country within 2-4 years
On November 17, the EU Commissioner for Defense and Space warned that intelligence from several European countries indicates Russian President Putin could be ready to test NATO's Article 5 within the next two to four years, before 2030. This official warning highlighted long-term risks but did not indicate an imminent invasion, consistent with the market's low probability assessment during the period.
Nov 7 2025
German General Warns Russia Could Launch Limited Attack on NATO at Any Time
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
A top German military official warned that Russia possesses the capacity to execute a limited attack on NATO territory, though the decision depends heavily on NATO's deterrence posture.
Oct 13 2025
German intelligence warns of new level of Russian attacks on Europe
On October 13, the German Foreign Intelligence Service president stated that Russian attacks on Europe have reached a new level of confrontation, with Russia probing borders and destabilizing NATO countries through hybrid warfare. This assessment underscored the ongoing threat but also indicated that Russia was not yet conducting a direct military invasion of NATO territory, maintaining market skepticism about an imminent invasion.
Oct 11 2025
UK, US, NATO flew 12-hour patrol on Russian border amid Ukraine war
On October 11, the UK announced that Royal Air Force aircraft joined a 12-hour NATO patrol near Russia's border following a series of Russian drone and aircraft incursions into NATO airspace. This joint operation demonstrated NATO's increased vigilance and military readiness to deter Russian provocations near its borders, contributing to market perceptions of a low likelihood of a full Russian invasion of NATO territory.
Oct 6 2025
ISW Reports Russia Entering 'Phase 0' of Preparations for NATO Conflict
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's surge in hybrid attacks and drone incursions indicates it has entered 'Phase 0' of psychological and informational preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
Sep 25 2025
Russia Accuses NATO and EU of Waging 'Real War' via Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western allies of direct involvement in a 'real war' against Russia, escalating diplomatic tensions as airspace violations continued.
Sep 23 2025
NATO Warns Russia Over Escalating Airspace Violations
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Following airspace violations in Poland, Romania, and Estonia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Russia that the alliance would use all necessary military and non-military tools to defend itself.
Sep 23 2025
NATO warns Russia it will use all means to defend airspace after incursions
On September 23, NATO publicly warned Russia that it would employ all necessary military and non-military tools to defend its airspace following recent Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO member states' airspace, including Poland and Estonia. This heightened alert and NATO's commitment to Article 5 reassured markets that NATO would respond firmly to any Russian aggression against its members, limiting perceived invasion risk.
"क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" Polymarket पर 3 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, 31 दिसंबर, 2026 6% (6¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है, उसके बाद 31 दिसंबर, 2025 0% पर है।
आज तक, "क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" ने कुल $5.4 million ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार May 28, 2025 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।
"क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 3 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।
यह एक खुला बाज़ार है। "क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" के लिए वर्तमान अग्रणी "31 दिसंबर, 2026" केवल 6% पर है, "31 दिसंबर, 2025" 0% पर पास है। किसी भी परिणाम के पास मज़बूत बहुमत नहीं होने से, ट्रेडर इसे अत्यधिक अनिश्चित मानते हैं। ये संभावनाएँ रियल-टाइम में अपडेट होती हैं।
"क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" के समाधान नियम ठीक-ठीक परिभाषित करते हैं कि प्रत्येक परिणाम को विजेता घोषित करने के लिए क्या होना चाहिए — जिसमें परिणाम निर्धारित करने के लिए उपयोग किए गए आधिकारिक डेटा स्रोत शामिल हैं। आप इस पेज पर टिप्पणियों के ऊपर "नियम" अनुभाग में पूर्ण समाधान मानदंड की समीक्षा कर सकते हैं।
हाँ। सूचित रहने के लिए आपको ट्रेड करने की ज़रूरत नहीं है। यह पेज "क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" के लिए लाइव ट्रैकर के रूप में काम करता है। नए ट्रेड आने पर परिणाम संभावनाएँ रियल-टाइम में अपडेट होती हैं। आप इस पेज को बुकमार्क कर सकते हैं और टिप्पणी अनुभाग में देख सकते हैं कि अन्य ट्रेडर क्या कह रहे हैं।
Polymarket की संभावनाएँ असली ट्रेडरों द्वारा अपने विश्वासों के पीछे असली पैसा लगाकर निर्धारित होती हैं, जो सटीक पूर्वानुमान सामने लाने की प्रवृत्ति रखती है। "क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" पर $5.4 million ट्रेड होने के साथ, ये कीमतें हज़ारों प्रतिभागियों के सामूहिक ज्ञान और विश्वास को एकत्र करती हैं। उदाहरण के लिए, Polymarket का एक महीने का सटीकता स्कोर 94% है। Polymarket की पूर्वानुमान सटीकता पर नवीनतम आँकड़ों के लिए, सटीकता पेज Polymarket पर देखें।
"क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" पर अपना पहला ट्रेड करने के लिए, एक मुफ़्त Polymarket अकाउंट के लिए साइन अप करें और क्रिप्टो, क्रेडिट या डेबिट कार्ड, या बैंक ट्रांसफ़र से फ़ंड करें। एक बार आपका अकाउंट फ़ंडेड हो जाने पर, इस पेज पर वापस आएँ, जिस परिणाम पर आप ट्रेड करना चाहते हैं उसे चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।
Polymarket पर, प्रत्येक परिणाम की कीमत बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाती है। "क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" बाज़ार में "31 दिसंबर, 2026" के लिए 6¢ की कीमत का मतलब है कि ट्रेडर सामूहिक रूप से मानते हैं कि "31 दिसंबर, 2026" के सही परिणाम होने की लगभग 6% संभावना है। अगर आप 6¢ पर "हाँ" शेयर खरीदते हैं और परिणाम सही है, तो आपको प्रति शेयर $1.00 मिलता है — प्रति शेयर 94¢ का लाभ।
"क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" बाज़ार की निर्धारित समाप्ति तिथि बीत चुकी है, लेकिन बाज़ार अभी तक आधिकारिक रूप से हल नहीं हुआ है। समाप्ति तिथि इंगित करती है कि अंतर्निहित घटना कब होने या ज्ञात होने की उम्मीद है। बाज़ार समाधान प्रक्रिया के माध्यम से परिणाम औपचारिक रूप से हल होने तक ट्रेडिंग के लिए खुला रहता है।
"क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" बाज़ार में 63 टिप्पणियों का एक सक्रिय समुदाय है जहाँ ट्रेडर अपना विश्लेषण साझा करते हैं, परिणामों पर बहस करते हैं, और ब्रेकिंग विकासों पर चर्चा करते हैं। अन्य प्रतिभागी क्या सोचते हैं पढ़ने के लिए नीचे टिप्पणी अनुभाग तक स्क्रॉल करें।
Polymarket दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा पूर्वानुमान बाज़ार है, जहाँ आप वास्तविक दुनिया की घटनाओं के अपने ज्ञान से सूचित रह सकते हैं और लाभ कमा सकते हैं। ट्रेडर राजनीति और चुनावों से लेकर क्रिप्टो, वित्त, खेल, तकनीक, और संस्कृति तक के विषयों पर परिणामों में शेयर खरीदते और बेचते हैं, जिसमें "क्या रूस... तक नाटो देश पर आक्रमण करेगा?" जैसे बाज़ार शामिल हैं।
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