Russia maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1991, with trader consensus pricing a low probability of a test by late 2026 amid ongoing diplomatic and verification constraints. Recent developments include President Putin’s October 2026 order directing the Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry, and security services to prepare proposals for possible tests in response to U.S. policy shifts under President Trump. Concurrently, Russia conducted a large-scale strategic nuclear forces exercise involving Yars ICBM launches from Plesetsk, submarine launches from the Barents Sea, and Tu-95 bomber flights, simulating nuclear authorization procedures. A separate multi-day emergency drill at the Beloyarsk nuclear plant tested responses to reactor accidents near upgraded command facilities. These steps signal heightened readiness and signaling without crossing into live explosive testing, while scheduled diplomatic engagements and verification regimes continue to shape the timeline.