Russia's signals on resuming nuclear explosive testing remain closely tied to U.S. policy shifts under President Trump, who directed preparations to restart such tests after a decades-long moratorium, citing alleged covert activities by Moscow and Beijing. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, confirmed work on proposals ordered by President Putin in response, while Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov reiterated that Moscow will refrain unless Washington proceeds first, noting the Novaya Zemlya test site stands ready. Recent months featured large-scale strategic exercises, successful launches of systems like the Sarmat ICBM and Burevestnik cruise missile, and major nuclear-accident drills, all framed as deterrence amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. sanctions. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these steps escalate to an actual explosive test within any near-term window, with resolution hinging on U.S. follow-through, diplomatic channels, or further military developments.