Maura Sullivan has surged to an 85.5% implied probability in the NH-01 Democratic primary, driven by consistent fundraising leadership—raising over $3.2 million with $1.6 million cash on hand—and recent polling gains that placed her ahead of Stefany Shaheen in the August UNH survey. Sullivan's profile as a Marine Corps veteran and former Obama administration official has drawn veteran endorsements and grassroots support, contrasting with Shaheen's early frontrunner status as the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Progressive consolidation around Carleigh Beriont and Heath Howard's prior endorsement of her have kept those shares low, while Christian Urrutia's recent exit and backing of Shaheen appears to have limited impact ahead of the September 8 vote. Trader consensus reflects Sullivan's resource and momentum edge in the final stretch.