Recent Israeli polling averages place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) at roughly 7–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with individual surveys ranging from 7 to 9. This range reflects steady combined Arab-party support near 12–13 seats, split between the Joint List and the separate Ra'am list. Minor week-to-week shifts in Zionist opposition and coalition blocs have not materially altered Arab-sector turnout or preference patterns. Public discussion of potential disqualifications has surfaced in some surveys but has not produced measurable movement in current projections. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to the 6–7 and 8–9 seat brackets, consistent with the narrow band shown across multiple pollsters.