JoCasta Zamarripa holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Wisconsin Secretary of State race, reflecting trader consensus that the Democratic nominee benefits from an open seat previously held by Democrats and a September 2026 shift in nonpartisan ratings to Lean Democratic. Zamarripa secured her party's nomination unopposed in the August primary after serving on the Milwaukee Common Council and in the state Senate, while positioning herself to maintain election administration with the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission. Jay Schroeder, the Republican nominee who captured 47% in a four-way August primary, trails at 12% amid his platform to transfer chief election official duties to the secretary of state office. The November 3 general election features a Green Party candidate as well, with the outcome hinging on statewide turnout and voter priorities around records transparency and institutional roles.