Recent polls place Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 7–9 Knesset seats on average, with individual surveys ranging from 7 to 9 as of mid-October. This distribution keeps the 6–7, 8–9, and 10+ outcomes closely matched on Polymarket. The October 27 election remains tight overall, with the Netanyahu-aligned bloc and opposition each short of a 61-seat majority in most aggregates. Factors such as turnout among right-wing voters, performance of allied lists like Religious Zionism, and any late shifts in bloc consolidation or smaller-party thresholds continue to influence Otzma’s final tally. Historical patterns show far-right parties can gain or lose several seats in the final weeks depending on mobilization and campaign focus.