Recent polling averages place Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas and running independently of the Joint List, near five Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election. Consistent survey results across multiple pollsters reflect steady support among Arab voters alongside competition for that electorate from the Joint List. The party's decision to contest separately, rather than in a unified Arab alliance, has produced seat projections clustered tightly between four and six, with limited movement in recent weeks. Factors that could shift outcomes include Arab turnout levels, any late campaign developments affecting voter preferences, or Supreme Court rulings on prior Central Elections Committee disqualification attempts. Trader pricing reflects this narrow band of likely results based on current evidence.