Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Google at 94.3% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by month's end, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model's stable Elo rating of 1493—bolstered by over 15,800 votes—trailing only Anthropic's dominant Claude Opus 4.6 variants at 1504 and 1500. Recent catalysts include Google's March rollout of Gemini 3.1 Pro enhancements in reasoning and multimodality, widening its lead over xAI's preliminary Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, fewer votes) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (1484). With just days remaining, this positioning reflects skin-in-the-game confidence amid rapid 2026 AI releases, though a surprise xAI optimization or OpenAI update could challenge it if vote momentum shifts dramatically.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGoogle 94.4%
xAI 3.0%
Anthropic 2.2%
DeepSeek <1%
$369,624 Vol.
$369,624 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
94%
xAI
3%
Anthropic
2%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 94.4%
xAI 3.0%
Anthropic 2.2%
DeepSeek <1%
$369,624 Vol.
$369,624 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$37,717 Vol.
94%
xAI
$30,230 Vol.
3%
Anthropic
$33,970 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$36,577 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$130,298 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$15,836 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$23,300 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$30,724 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$19,343 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$11,628 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Google at 94.3% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by month's end, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model's stable Elo rating of 1493—bolstered by over 15,800 votes—trailing only Anthropic's dominant Claude Opus 4.6 variants at 1504 and 1500. Recent catalysts include Google's March rollout of Gemini 3.1 Pro enhancements in reasoning and multimodality, widening its lead over xAI's preliminary Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, fewer votes) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (1484). With just days remaining, this positioning reflects skin-in-the-game confidence amid rapid 2026 AI releases, though a surprise xAI optimization or OpenAI update could challenge it if vote momentum shifts dramatically.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$369,624Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Google at 94.3% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by month's end, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model's stable Elo rating of 1493—bolstered by over 15,800 votes—trailing only Anthropic's dominant Claude Opus 4.6 variants at 1504 and 1500. Recent catalysts include Google's March rollout of Gemini 3.1 Pro enhancements in reasoning and multimodality, widening its lead over xAI's preliminary Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, fewer votes) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (1484). With just days remaining, this positioning reflects skin-in-the-game confidence amid rapid 2026 AI releases, though a surprise xAI optimization or OpenAI update could challenge it if vote momentum shifts dramatically.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$369,624Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Google at 94.3% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by month's end, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model's stable Elo rating of 1493—bolstered by over 15,800 votes—trailing only Anthropic's dominant Claude Opus 4.6 variants at 1504 and 1500. Recent catalysts include Google's March rollout of Gemini 3.1 Pro enhancements in reasoning and multimodality, widening its lead over xAI's preliminary Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, fewer votes) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (1484). With just days remaining, this positioning reflects skin-in-the-game confidence amid rapid 2026 AI releases, though a surprise xAI optimization or OpenAI update could challenge it if vote momentum shifts dramatically.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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