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Économie·Logement·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?

Market icon
Économie·Logement·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?

1.175 - 1.185m 91%

>1,195 M 4.9%

1.125 - 1.135m 4.0%

1.155 - 1.165m 3.2%

Polymarket

$4,697 Vol.

1.175 - 1.185m 91%

>1,195 M 4.9%

1.125 - 1.135m 4.0%

1.155 - 1.165m 3.2%

Polymarket

$4,697 Vol.

<1.125m

$116 Vol.

3%

1.125 - 1.135m

$863 Vol.

4%

1.135 - 1.145m

$334 Vol.

2%

1.145 - 1.155m

$636 Vol.

3%

1.155 - 1.165m

$141 Vol.

3%

1.165 - 1.175m

$837 Vol.

42%

1.175 - 1.185m

$678 Vol.

91%

1,185 - 1,195 M

$510 Vol.

47%

>1,195 M

$583 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the San Francisco metro area's median home value falling in the $1.175-1.185 million bin per Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) on April 1, driven by February's $1.116 million baseline amid explosive early-2026 momentum. March market reports highlight single-family median sale prices surging 21% year-over-year to $1.65-2.0 million, inventory plunging 40%, and days-on-market tightening to 7, signaling fierce tech-fueled demand outpacing supply despite 6.5-7% mortgage rates. This wisdom-of-crowds pricing anticipates modest 5% quarterly appreciation. Realistic challenges include Zillow's pending March ZHVI release revealing stalled growth from rising listings or softening Bay Area job data.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)
Volume
$4,697
Date de fin
1 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the San Francisco metro area's median home value falling in the $1.175-1.185 million bin per Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) on April 1, driven by February's $1.116 million baseline amid explosive early-2026 momentum. March market reports highlight single-family median sale prices surging 21% year-over-year to $1.65-2.0 million, inventory plunging 40%, and days-on-market tightening to 7, signaling fierce tech-fueled demand outpacing supply despite 6.5-7% mortgage rates. This wisdom-of-crowds pricing anticipates modest 5% quarterly appreciation. Realistic challenges include Zillow's pending March ZHVI release revealing stalled growth from rising listings or softening Bay Area job data.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)
Volume
$4,697
Date de fin
1 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)

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Questions fréquentes

« What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 1.175 - 1.185m » à 91%, suivi de « 1,185 - 1,195 M » à 47%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 91¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 91% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Feb 27, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1? », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1? » est « 1.175 - 1.185m » à 91%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 91% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 1,185 - 1,195 M » à 47%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.