Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47.9% implied probability to Chicago's median home value falling in the $327,000–$330,000 range on April 1, driven by recent softening in the local housing market amid surging inventory and subdued buyer demand. Zillow's latest Home Value Index pegged the Chicago metro area at $337,126 for February—flat month-over-month but down 0.4% year-over-year—with Redfin reporting a 12% YoY rise in new listings and a 4% drop in sales volume last month. Elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6.8% continue dampening affordability, while stable unemployment offers limited support. March pending home sales data, due next week, represents a key pre-resolution catalyst that could reinforce or challenge this downward pricing trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWhat will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?
What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?
327 - 330k 48.3%
324 - 327k 22%
330 - 333k 15.8%
336 - 339k 15.7%
$12,315 Vol.
$12,315 Vol.
<321k
7%
321 - 324k
14%
324 - 327k
22%
327 - 330k
48%
330 - 333k
17%
333 - 336k
1%
336 - 339k
16%
>339k
1%
327 - 330k 48.3%
324 - 327k 22%
330 - 333k 15.8%
336 - 339k 15.7%
$12,315 Vol.
$12,315 Vol.
<321k
7%
321 - 324k
14%
324 - 327k
22%
327 - 330k
48%
330 - 333k
17%
333 - 336k
1%
336 - 339k
16%
>339k
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/22)
Marché ouvert : Feb 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/22)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47.9% implied probability to Chicago's median home value falling in the $327,000–$330,000 range on April 1, driven by recent softening in the local housing market amid surging inventory and subdued buyer demand. Zillow's latest Home Value Index pegged the Chicago metro area at $337,126 for February—flat month-over-month but down 0.4% year-over-year—with Redfin reporting a 12% YoY rise in new listings and a 4% drop in sales volume last month. Elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6.8% continue dampening affordability, while stable unemployment offers limited support. March pending home sales data, due next week, represents a key pre-resolution catalyst that could reinforce or challenge this downward pricing trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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