US-Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites, IRGC command centers, and energy facilities like Kharg Island, driving trader consensus toward military action persisting through April 30 at 52.5%. Over the past week, the US conducted thousands of combat sorties under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel announcing over 600 strikes on ballistic capabilities, while Iran launched its 89th wave of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli and US regional bases, showing no de-escalation signals. President Trump's remarks hinting at a two-to-three-week resolution remain unfulfilled a month into the February 28 onset, amid unconfirmed backchannel diplomacy and absent ceasefire talks, underscoring uncertainty despite air dominance and regime pressure. Specific April end dates trail due to sustained escalation over diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action through April 30 53%
April 28 5.4%
April 16 4.2%
April 3 3.0%
$88,004 Vol.
$88,004 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
Before April
<1%
April 1
1%
April 2
2%
April 3
3%
April 4
1%
April 5
1%
April 6
1%
April 7
2%
April 8
1%
April 9
1%
April 10
1%
April 11
2%
April 12
2%
April 13
3%
April 14
2%
April 15
2%
April 16
4%
April 17
1%
April 18
1%
April 19
1%
April 20
1%
April 21
1%
April 22
1%
April 23
1%
April 24
1%
April 25
1%
April 26
1%
April 27
1%
April 28
5%
April 29
2%
April 30
3%
Military action through April 30
53%
Military action through April 30 53%
April 28 5.4%
April 16 4.2%
April 3 3.0%
$88,004 Vol.
$88,004 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
Before April
$4,957 Vol.
<1%
April 1
$11,074 Vol.
1%
April 2
$6,430 Vol.
2%
April 3
$4,399 Vol.
3%
April 4
$1,726 Vol.
1%
April 5
$1,853 Vol.
1%
April 6
$1,546 Vol.
1%
April 7
$7,147 Vol.
2%
April 8
$2,081 Vol.
1%
April 9
$1,990 Vol.
1%
April 10
$1,485 Vol.
1%
April 11
$1,665 Vol.
2%
April 12
$1,913 Vol.
2%
April 13
$2,202 Vol.
3%
April 14
$2,122 Vol.
2%
April 15
$1,565 Vol.
2%
April 16
$1,878 Vol.
4%
April 17
$1,485 Vol.
1%
April 18
$1,442 Vol.
1%
April 19
$1,915 Vol.
1%
April 20
$2,021 Vol.
1%
April 21
$1,941 Vol.
1%
April 22
$1,342 Vol.
1%
April 23
$1,341 Vol.
1%
April 24
$1,342 Vol.
1%
April 25
$1,342 Vol.
1%
April 26
$1,342 Vol.
1%
April 27
$1,468 Vol.
1%
April 28
$1,468 Vol.
5%
April 29
$1,533 Vol.
2%
April 30
$2,238 Vol.
3%
Military action through April 30
$9,748 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites, IRGC command centers, and energy facilities like Kharg Island, driving trader consensus toward military action persisting through April 30 at 52.5%. Over the past week, the US conducted thousands of combat sorties under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel announcing over 600 strikes on ballistic capabilities, while Iran launched its 89th wave of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli and US regional bases, showing no de-escalation signals. President Trump's remarks hinting at a two-to-three-week resolution remain unfulfilled a month into the February 28 onset, amid unconfirmed backchannel diplomacy and absent ceasefire talks, underscoring uncertainty despite air dominance and regime pressure. Specific April end dates trail due to sustained escalation over diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$88,004Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites, IRGC command centers, and energy facilities like Kharg Island, driving trader consensus toward military action persisting through April 30 at 52.5%. Over the past week, the US conducted thousands of combat sorties under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel announcing over 600 strikes on ballistic capabilities, while Iran launched its 89th wave of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli and US regional bases, showing no de-escalation signals. President Trump's remarks hinting at a two-to-three-week resolution remain unfulfilled a month into the February 28 onset, amid unconfirmed backchannel diplomacy and absent ceasefire talks, underscoring uncertainty despite air dominance and regime pressure. Specific April end dates trail due to sustained escalation over diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,004Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US-Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites, IRGC command centers, and energy facilities like Kharg Island, driving trader consensus toward military action persisting through April 30 at 52.5%. Over the past week, the US conducted thousands of combat sorties under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel announcing over 600 strikes on ballistic capabilities, while Iran launched its 89th wave of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli and US regional bases, showing no de-escalation signals. President Trump's remarks hinting at a two-to-three-week resolution remain unfulfilled a month into the February 28 onset, amid unconfirmed backchannel diplomacy and absent ceasefire talks, underscoring uncertainty despite air dominance and regime pressure. Specific April end dates trail due to sustained escalation over diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes