Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Research Centre and Medián, conducted in late March 2026, show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP by 19–23 points among decided and likely voters, with seat projections granting Tisza a parliamentary majority in Hungary's mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and 93 proportional seats. This has solidified trader consensus at 69% implied probability for Fidesz as second-place finisher, reflecting incumbency advantages in rural districts, historical polling discrepancies, and 20–26% undecided voters who could boost turnout for the governing alliance. Tisza's 30% chance of second stems from potential Fidesz mobilization, while fragmented opposition parties like Mi Hazánk (5–6%) and DK trail far behind the 5% threshold. Escalating campaign tensions over vote-buying claims precede the April 12 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Fidesz-KDNP 69%
TISZA 30%
LMP <1%
MSZP <1%
$83,672 Vol.
$83,672 Vol.
12 avr. 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
69%
TISZA
30%
LMP
<1%
MSZP
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
DK
<1%
Momentum
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 69%
TISZA 30%
LMP <1%
MSZP <1%
$83,672 Vol.
$83,672 Vol.
12 avr. 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
$16,113 Vol.
69%
TISZA
$15,038 Vol.
30%
LMP
$2,596 Vol.
<1%
MSZP
$12,561 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$27,148 Vol.
<1%
DK
$2,962 Vol.
<1%
Momentum
$2,271 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$2,536 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$2,447 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Research Centre and Medián, conducted in late March 2026, show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP by 19–23 points among decided and likely voters, with seat projections granting Tisza a parliamentary majority in Hungary's mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and 93 proportional seats. This has solidified trader consensus at 69% implied probability for Fidesz as second-place finisher, reflecting incumbency advantages in rural districts, historical polling discrepancies, and 20–26% undecided voters who could boost turnout for the governing alliance. Tisza's 30% chance of second stems from potential Fidesz mobilization, while fragmented opposition parties like Mi Hazánk (5–6%) and DK trail far behind the 5% threshold. Escalating campaign tensions over vote-buying claims precede the April 12 vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
Volume
$83,672Date de fin
12 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Research Centre and Medián, conducted in late March 2026, show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP by 19–23 points among decided and likely voters, with seat projections granting Tisza a parliamentary majority in Hungary's mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and 93 proportional seats. This has solidified trader consensus at 69% implied probability for Fidesz as second-place finisher, reflecting incumbency advantages in rural districts, historical polling discrepancies, and 20–26% undecided voters who could boost turnout for the governing alliance. Tisza's 30% chance of second stems from potential Fidesz mobilization, while fragmented opposition parties like Mi Hazánk (5–6%) and DK trail far behind the 5% threshold. Escalating campaign tensions over vote-buying claims precede the April 12 vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Volume
$83,672Date de fin
12 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Research Centre and Medián, conducted in late March 2026, show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP by 19–23 points among decided and likely voters, with seat projections granting Tisza a parliamentary majority in Hungary's mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and 93 proportional seats. This has solidified trader consensus at 69% implied probability for Fidesz as second-place finisher, reflecting incumbency advantages in rural districts, historical polling discrepancies, and 20–26% undecided voters who could boost turnout for the governing alliance. Tisza's 30% chance of second stems from potential Fidesz mobilization, while fragmented opposition parties like Mi Hazánk (5–6%) and DK trail far behind the 5% threshold. Escalating campaign tensions over vote-buying claims precede the April 12 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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