Polymarket traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious policy stance following its March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The updated dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, tempering easing expectations amid persistent inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran oil shock and elevated energy prices. February's nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling labor market softening but insufficient to override sticky price pressures. Odds for a 25 bps decrease stand at 13.5%, while hike probabilities at 7.3% capture stagflation concerns. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNo change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,247,974 Vol.
$2,247,974 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,247,974 Vol.
$2,247,974 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$42,567 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,790 Vol.
14%
No change
$43,029 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$2,085,414 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$49,174 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious policy stance following its March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The updated dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, tempering easing expectations amid persistent inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran oil shock and elevated energy prices. February's nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling labor market softening but insufficient to override sticky price pressures. Odds for a 25 bps decrease stand at 13.5%, while hike probabilities at 7.3% capture stagflation concerns. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,247,974Date de fin
Jul 29, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious policy stance following its March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The updated dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, tempering easing expectations amid persistent inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran oil shock and elevated energy prices. February's nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling labor market softening but insufficient to override sticky price pressures. Odds for a 25 bps decrease stand at 13.5%, while hike probabilities at 7.3% capture stagflation concerns. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$2,247,974Date de fin
Jul 29, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious policy stance following its March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The updated dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, tempering easing expectations amid persistent inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran oil shock and elevated energy prices. February's nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling labor market softening but insufficient to override sticky price pressures. Odds for a 25 bps decrease stand at 13.5%, while hike probabilities at 7.3% capture stagflation concerns. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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