Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance after holding rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with February nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The latest dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut in 2026 overall, with median projections at 3.4% by year-end, tempering near-term easing expectations despite mixed data. Hawkish sentiment has lifted 25 basis point hike odds to 7.2% amid geopolitical risks like spiking oil prices from Iran tensions, while larger moves remain marginal. Key catalysts include March CPI on April 10 and upcoming payrolls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNo change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,249,107 Vol.
$2,249,107 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,249,107 Vol.
$2,249,107 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$43,367 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,797 Vol.
14%
No change
$43,029 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$2,085,414 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$49,500 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance after holding rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with February nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The latest dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut in 2026 overall, with median projections at 3.4% by year-end, tempering near-term easing expectations despite mixed data. Hawkish sentiment has lifted 25 basis point hike odds to 7.2% amid geopolitical risks like spiking oil prices from Iran tensions, while larger moves remain marginal. Key catalysts include March CPI on April 10 and upcoming payrolls.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,249,107Date de fin
Jul 29, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance after holding rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with February nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The latest dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut in 2026 overall, with median projections at 3.4% by year-end, tempering near-term easing expectations despite mixed data. Hawkish sentiment has lifted 25 basis point hike odds to 7.2% amid geopolitical risks like spiking oil prices from Iran tensions, while larger moves remain marginal. Key catalysts include March CPI on April 10 and upcoming payrolls.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$2,249,107Date de fin
Jul 29, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance after holding rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with February nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The latest dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut in 2026 overall, with median projections at 3.4% by year-end, tempering near-term easing expectations despite mixed data. Hawkish sentiment has lifted 25 basis point hike odds to 7.2% amid geopolitical risks like spiking oil prices from Iran tensions, while larger moves remain marginal. Key catalysts include March CPI on April 10 and upcoming payrolls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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