Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 18 policy statement holding the 3.5%-3.75% target steady amid stubbornly elevated inflation near 2.4% CPI and core PCE projections ticking higher to 2.2% for 2027. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, elevating 7.3% odds for a 25 basis point hike as a hawkish tail risk, while February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payrolls drop and 4.4% unemployment nudged 15.5% probability for a quarter-point cut, bolstered by softer recent producer price index data. Consensus anticipates just one cut sometime in 2026, with April CPI on April 10 as the next key catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNo change 74%
25 bps decrease 17%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$2,063,651 Vol.
$2,063,651 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
17%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps decrease 17%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$2,063,651 Vol.
$2,063,651 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$38,402 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$20,397 Vol.
17%
No change
$29,602 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$1,933,858 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$41,849 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 18 policy statement holding the 3.5%-3.75% target steady amid stubbornly elevated inflation near 2.4% CPI and core PCE projections ticking higher to 2.2% for 2027. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, elevating 7.3% odds for a 25 basis point hike as a hawkish tail risk, while February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payrolls drop and 4.4% unemployment nudged 15.5% probability for a quarter-point cut, bolstered by softer recent producer price index data. Consensus anticipates just one cut sometime in 2026, with April CPI on April 10 as the next key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,063,651Date de fin
Jul 29, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 18 policy statement holding the 3.5%-3.75% target steady amid stubbornly elevated inflation near 2.4% CPI and core PCE projections ticking higher to 2.2% for 2027. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, elevating 7.3% odds for a 25 basis point hike as a hawkish tail risk, while February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payrolls drop and 4.4% unemployment nudged 15.5% probability for a quarter-point cut, bolstered by softer recent producer price index data. Consensus anticipates just one cut sometime in 2026, with April CPI on April 10 as the next key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$2,063,651Date de fin
Jul 29, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 18 policy statement holding the 3.5%-3.75% target steady amid stubbornly elevated inflation near 2.4% CPI and core PCE projections ticking higher to 2.2% for 2027. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, elevating 7.3% odds for a 25 basis point hike as a hawkish tail risk, while February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payrolls drop and 4.4% unemployment nudged 15.5% probability for a quarter-point cut, bolstered by softer recent producer price index data. Consensus anticipates just one cut sometime in 2026, with April CPI on April 10 as the next key catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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