Polymarket traders price a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, with the 1600–1699 bracket at 25.5%, reflecting competitive sentiment amid President Milei's disinflation progress. Recent September CPI eased to 3.5% monthly—down from 4.2% in August—bolstered by fiscal surplus and a restrained 1% monthly crawling peg, building central bank reserves to $30 billion and fueling optimism for contained devaluation. However, political risks ahead of 2025 midterms, potential drought impacts on exports, and IMF negotiations introduce uncertainty, differentiating outcomes: sustained austerity could stabilize below 1700, while shocks might push toward 1800+. Key watch: October CPI release and 2025 budget proposal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour<1600,00 31%
1600,00–1699,99 26%
1700,00–1799,99 16.9%
2000,00+ 8.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1600,00
34%
1600,00–1699,99
26%
1700,00–1799,99
17%
1800,00–1899,99
19%
1900,00–1999,99
8%
2000,00+
9%
<1600,00 31%
1600,00–1699,99 26%
1700,00–1799,99 16.9%
2000,00+ 8.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1600,00
$0 Vol.
34%
1600,00–1699,99
$0 Vol.
26%
1700,00–1799,99
$0 Vol.
17%
1800,00–1899,99
$0 Vol.
19%
1900,00–1999,99
$0 Vol.
8%
2000,00+
$855 Vol.
9%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, with the 1600–1699 bracket at 25.5%, reflecting competitive sentiment amid President Milei's disinflation progress. Recent September CPI eased to 3.5% monthly—down from 4.2% in August—bolstered by fiscal surplus and a restrained 1% monthly crawling peg, building central bank reserves to $30 billion and fueling optimism for contained devaluation. However, political risks ahead of 2025 midterms, potential drought impacts on exports, and IMF negotiations introduce uncertainty, differentiating outcomes: sustained austerity could stabilize below 1700, while shocks might push toward 1800+. Key watch: October CPI release and 2025 budget proposal.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$855Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, with the 1600–1699 bracket at 25.5%, reflecting competitive sentiment amid President Milei's disinflation progress. Recent September CPI eased to 3.5% monthly—down from 4.2% in August—bolstered by fiscal surplus and a restrained 1% monthly crawling peg, building central bank reserves to $30 billion and fueling optimism for contained devaluation. However, political risks ahead of 2025 midterms, potential drought impacts on exports, and IMF negotiations introduce uncertainty, differentiating outcomes: sustained austerity could stabilize below 1700, while shocks might push toward 1800+. Key watch: October CPI release and 2025 budget proposal.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$855Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, with the 1600–1699 bracket at 25.5%, reflecting competitive sentiment amid President Milei's disinflation progress. Recent September CPI eased to 3.5% monthly—down from 4.2% in August—bolstered by fiscal surplus and a restrained 1% monthly crawling peg, building central bank reserves to $30 billion and fueling optimism for contained devaluation. However, political risks ahead of 2025 midterms, potential drought impacts on exports, and IMF negotiations introduce uncertainty, differentiating outcomes: sustained austerity could stabilize below 1700, while shocks might push toward 1800+. Key watch: October CPI release and 2025 budget proposal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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