Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, reflecting expectations of sustained peso depreciation despite disinflation progress. September's monthly CPI fell to 3.5%—below 4% consensus—bolstered by fiscal surplus and rising BCRA net reserves to $5.5 billion, yet traders remain cautious amid political gridlock ahead of 2025 midterms and IMF talks for a $20 billion facility. The current crawling peg at 1-2% monthly implies ~50% weakening from today's ~985 level over two years, but upside inflation risks or delayed dollarization keep 1500-1549 (22.6%) viable, while <1250 odds (13.7%) bet on aggressive stabilization. Key catalysts: Q4 inflation data and fiscal execution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour1600,00+ 49%
<1250,00 13.7%
1500,00–1549,99 7.6%
1350,00–1399,99 7.1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250,00
14%
1250,00–1299,99
13%
1300,00–1349,99
5%
1350,00–1399,99
7%
1400,00–1449,99
6%
1450,00–1499,99
8%
1500,00–1549,99
16%
1550,00–1599,99
6%
1600,00+
56%
1600,00+ 49%
<1250,00 13.7%
1500,00–1549,99 7.6%
1350,00–1399,99 7.1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250,00
$0 Vol.
14%
1250,00–1299,99
$0 Vol.
13%
1300,00–1349,99
$0 Vol.
5%
1350,00–1399,99
$0 Vol.
7%
1400,00–1449,99
$0 Vol.
6%
1450,00–1499,99
$0 Vol.
8%
1500,00–1549,99
$0 Vol.
16%
1550,00–1599,99
$0 Vol.
6%
1600,00+
$1,264 Vol.
56%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, reflecting expectations of sustained peso depreciation despite disinflation progress. September's monthly CPI fell to 3.5%—below 4% consensus—bolstered by fiscal surplus and rising BCRA net reserves to $5.5 billion, yet traders remain cautious amid political gridlock ahead of 2025 midterms and IMF talks for a $20 billion facility. The current crawling peg at 1-2% monthly implies ~50% weakening from today's ~985 level over two years, but upside inflation risks or delayed dollarization keep 1500-1549 (22.6%) viable, while <1250 odds (13.7%) bet on aggressive stabilization. Key catalysts: Q4 inflation data and fiscal execution.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$1,264Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, reflecting expectations of sustained peso depreciation despite disinflation progress. September's monthly CPI fell to 3.5%—below 4% consensus—bolstered by fiscal surplus and rising BCRA net reserves to $5.5 billion, yet traders remain cautious amid political gridlock ahead of 2025 midterms and IMF talks for a $20 billion facility. The current crawling peg at 1-2% monthly implies ~50% weakening from today's ~985 level over two years, but upside inflation risks or delayed dollarization keep 1500-1549 (22.6%) viable, while <1250 odds (13.7%) bet on aggressive stabilization. Key catalysts: Q4 inflation data and fiscal execution.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$1,264Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, reflecting expectations of sustained peso depreciation despite disinflation progress. September's monthly CPI fell to 3.5%—below 4% consensus—bolstered by fiscal surplus and rising BCRA net reserves to $5.5 billion, yet traders remain cautious amid political gridlock ahead of 2025 midterms and IMF talks for a $20 billion facility. The current crawling peg at 1-2% monthly implies ~50% weakening from today's ~985 level over two years, but upside inflation risks or delayed dollarization keep 1500-1549 (22.6%) viable, while <1250 odds (13.7%) bet on aggressive stabilization. Key catalysts: Q4 inflation data and fiscal execution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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