Market-implied odds heavily favor a July 2026 headline CPI rise of at least 0.1% month-over-month, reflecting trader consensus anchored in Cleveland Fed nowcasts showing 0.09% headline and 0.21% core gains alongside consensus forecasts for a 0.1% print. June’s sharp 0.4% decline, driven by a 5.7% energy drop amid easing geopolitical pressures, sets a low base that supports a modest rebound as gasoline and fuel prices stabilize. Persistent shelter and food contributions, alongside steady core trends near 0.2%, reinforce expectations for positive momentum despite cooling one-year consumer inflation expectations to 3.6%. The August 12 release will resolve the market, with any surprise in energy or shelter data capable of shifting the closely clustered probabilities around the 0.0–0.1% threshold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≥0,1 % 66%
0,0 % 27%
-0,1 % 5.7%
-0,2 % <1%
$269,273 Vol.
$269,273 Vol.
12 août 2026
≤-0,7 %
<1%
-0,6 %
<1%
-0,5 %
<1%
-0,4 %
<1%
-0,3 %
<1%
-0,2 %
<1%
-0,1 %
6%
0,0 %
27%
≥0,1 %
66%
≥0,1 % 66%
0,0 % 27%
-0,1 % 5.7%
-0,2 % <1%
$269,273 Vol.
$269,273 Vol.
12 août 2026
≤-0,7 %
$15,394 Vol.
<1%
-0,6 %
$11,025 Vol.
<1%
-0,5 %
$11,037 Vol.
<1%
-0,4 %
$10,592 Vol.
<1%
-0,3 %
$10,888 Vol.
<1%
-0,2 %
$12,749 Vol.
<1%
-0,1 %
$27,355 Vol.
6%
0,0 %
$61,344 Vol.
27%
≥0,1 %
$108,888 Vol.
66%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Market-implied odds heavily favor a July 2026 headline CPI rise of at least 0.1% month-over-month, reflecting trader consensus anchored in Cleveland Fed nowcasts showing 0.09% headline and 0.21% core gains alongside consensus forecasts for a 0.1% print. June’s sharp 0.4% decline, driven by a 5.7% energy drop amid easing geopolitical pressures, sets a low base that supports a modest rebound as gasoline and fuel prices stabilize. Persistent shelter and food contributions, alongside steady core trends near 0.2%, reinforce expectations for positive momentum despite cooling one-year consumer inflation expectations to 3.6%. The August 12 release will resolve the market, with any surprise in energy or shelter data capable of shifting the closely clustered probabilities around the 0.0–0.1% threshold.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$269,273Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Market-implied odds heavily favor a July 2026 headline CPI rise of at least 0.1% month-over-month, reflecting trader consensus anchored in Cleveland Fed nowcasts showing 0.09% headline and 0.21% core gains alongside consensus forecasts for a 0.1% print. June’s sharp 0.4% decline, driven by a 5.7% energy drop amid easing geopolitical pressures, sets a low base that supports a modest rebound as gasoline and fuel prices stabilize. Persistent shelter and food contributions, alongside steady core trends near 0.2%, reinforce expectations for positive momentum despite cooling one-year consumer inflation expectations to 3.6%. The August 12 release will resolve the market, with any surprise in energy or shelter data capable of shifting the closely clustered probabilities around the 0.0–0.1% threshold.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$269,273Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds heavily favor a July 2026 headline CPI rise of at least 0.1% month-over-month, reflecting trader consensus anchored in Cleveland Fed nowcasts showing 0.09% headline and 0.21% core gains alongside consensus forecasts for a 0.1% print. June’s sharp 0.4% decline, driven by a 5.7% energy drop amid easing geopolitical pressures, sets a low base that supports a modest rebound as gasoline and fuel prices stabilize. Persistent shelter and food contributions, alongside steady core trends near 0.2%, reinforce expectations for positive momentum despite cooling one-year consumer inflation expectations to 3.6%. The August 12 release will resolve the market, with any surprise in energy or shelter data capable of shifting the closely clustered probabilities around the 0.0–0.1% threshold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes