Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by EOY?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$79,977 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yahya Sinwar remains leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip uninterrupted from December 3 through December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$79,977
End Date
Dec 31, 2023
Created At
Dec 4, 2023, 12:45 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yahya Sinwar remains leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip uninterrupted from December 3 through December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by EOY?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$79,977 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yahya Sinwar remains leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip uninterrupted from December 3 through December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$79,977
End Date
Dec 31, 2023
Created At
Dec 4, 2023, 12:45 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yahya Sinwar remains leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip uninterrupted from December 3 through December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.