France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 100.0%
New Zealand <1%
Switzerland <1%
England <1%
$4,327,988,660 Vol.
$4,327,988,660 Vol.
Spain
Yes
New Zealand
No
Switzerland
No
England
No
France
No
South Korea
No
Haiti
No
Brazil
No
Jordan
No
Curaçao
No
Argentina
No
Germany
No
Colombia
No
Iran
No
Portugal
No
Ghana
No
Netherlands
No
Algeria
No
Bosnia-Herzegovina
No
Italy
No
USA
No
Canada
No
Turkiye
No
Uruguay
No
Mexico
No
Paraguay
No
Scotland
No
Peru
No
Japan
No
Norway
No
Tunisia
No
Ecuador
No
Uzbekistan
No
Morocco
No
Panama
No
Iraq
No
South Africa
No
Senegal
No
Ivory Coast
No
Congo DR
No
Cape Verde
No
Czechia
No
Qatar
No
Belgium
No
Australia
No
Saudi Arabia
No
Austria
No
Croatia
No
Egypt
No
Sweden
No
Spain 100.0%
New Zealand <1%
Switzerland <1%
England <1%
$4,327,988,660 Vol.
$4,327,988,660 Vol.
Spain
Yes
New Zealand
No
Switzerland
No
England
No
France
No
South Korea
No
Haiti
No
Brazil
No
Jordan
No
Curaçao
No
Argentina
No
Germany
No
Colombia
No
Iran
No
Portugal
No
Ghana
No
Netherlands
No
Algeria
No
Bosnia-Herzegovina
No
Italy
No
USA
No
Canada
No
Turkiye
No
Uruguay
No
Mexico
No
Paraguay
No
Scotland
No
Peru
No
Japan
No
Norway
No
Tunisia
No
Ecuador
No
Uzbekistan
No
Morocco
No
Panama
No
Iraq
No
South Africa
No
Senegal
No
Ivory Coast
No
Congo DR
No
Cape Verde
No
Czechia
No
Qatar
No
Belgium
No
Australia
No
Saudi Arabia
No
Austria
No
Croatia
No
Egypt
No
Sweden
No
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions