Name: Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be released today?
Start: 2025-12-11T18:21:33.312758Z
End: 2025-12-11T00:00:00Z

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A federal judge ordered the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from immigration detention on December 11, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-orders-immediate-release-kilmar-abrego-garcia-immigration/story?id=126511576.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Abrego Garcia is released from custody by December 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Abrego Garcia is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, this market will resolve to "Yes".

If Abrego Garcia is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving government custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Abrego Garcia to another location of custody (i.e., a separate immigration detention facility, criminal custody in a prison or jail, or a hospital under custodial guard) will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant U.S. government bodies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be released today?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Maxwell is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Maxwell is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Maxwell to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?

Sam Bankman-Fried is tweeting again (https://x.com/SBF_FTX/status/1970633704323362904).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried  to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SBF released from custody in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is arrested between August 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Gavin Newsom arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrii Yermak is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31?

On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-arrest-houston-area-abortionist-and-crackdown-clinics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to providing illegal abortions in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If all charges related to providing illegal abortions in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all illegal abortion charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Georgia State Representative Stacey Abrams is arrested between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stacey Abrams be arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is arrested between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joe Biden arrested by December 31?

Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan was arrested by the FBI on April 25, 2025, charged with obstruction and concealing an individual for allegedly aiding an undocumented immigrant to evade ICE (see: https://www.axios.com/2025/04/25/fbi-arrests-judge-wisconsin-hannah-dugan-kash-patel).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Judge Hannah Dugan is convicted of any charges related to her alleged actions of obstructing federal agents or concealing an individual from ICE, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wisconsin judge convicted for obstructing immigration operation?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hayden Davis serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 16, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hayden Davis in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump reopen Alcatraz in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Odell Beckham Jr., serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 10, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use

Odell Beckham Jr. in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Park Sung-jae spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between October 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Park Sung-jae in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.

US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 24, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility such as the Seoul Detention Center while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye (Kanye West) is arrested between April 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kanye West arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione formally agrees to a plea bargain for any of his murder or terrorism charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As they stand on February 21, qualifying charges are:
Federal - Murder through use of a firearm
State - Murder in the first degree, murder in the second degree as a crime of terrorism, murder in the second degree

If all of these charges are dropped or dismissed, or otherwise changed to charges that involve neither murder, manslaughter, nor terrorism, this market will resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open to consider further retrials, only resolving once this market's resolution date has passed.

If a verdict is reached on all named charges, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is the ruling court in this case, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Luigi Mangione plea deal in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if New York City Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Zohran Mamdani from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

Will Zohran Mamdani be deported by December 31?

On September 18, 2025, Acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson announced that eight Minneapolis defendants were indicted for defrauding Minnesota’s housing stabilization program. It is rumored that some of these funds were used to fund the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab. You can read more about that here: https://www.city-journal.org/article/minnesota-welfare-fraud-somalia-al-shabaab?.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Minnesota defendants who were indicted for fraud in this case are officially deported from the United States by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of any of the indicted persons from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.


Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sam Altman in jail by June 30?

On October 8, 2025, Donald Trump called for Governor J.B. Pritzker to be arrested. You can read more about that here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ar-AA1O5i3t

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pritzker is arrested or detained by law enforcement between October 8, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

JB Pritzker arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a judge declares a mistrial in either of Luigi Mangione's ongoing federal or state cases by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A mistrial only needs to be declared in one of Mangione's ongoing cases for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If all ongoing cases as of February 25, 2025 resolve without a mistrial being declared, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from the ruling courts in this case, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Luigi Mangione mistrial?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced James B. Comey serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between September 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


James Comey in jail in 2025?

 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


John Bolton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Is John McAfee alive?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jun-seok serves any time in custody in any prison between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the the Federal Senate (Senado Federal) votes to proceed with any impeachment of Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil Alexandre de Moraes by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the first such vote the Senate undertakes (e.g., if the Federal Senate decides to vote on the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes and it fails to pass, this market will resolve to "No").

This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the Senate successfully votes to proceed with this impeachment, regardless of the impeachment's outcome.

If it becomes impossible to impeach Alexandre de Moraes while he is in his role as Minister (e.g., he resigns) and the "Yes" condition has not yet been met, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi ceases to be the US Attorney General for any period of time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Bondi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ghislaine Maxwell is granted a sentence reduction, transfer to a less restrictive facility, or any other formal legal benefit by the U.S. federal government in connection with cooperation or information she provides to U.S. authorities by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Qualifying cooperation may include providing testimony, depositions, or other information to federal prosecutors, law enforcement agencies, or Congress. The benefit must be explicitly linked to such cooperation, either through government statements or a consensus of credible reporting.

Examples of qualifying benefits include but are not limited to:
- A sentence reduction via Rule 35(b) or similar motion
- A transfer to a lower-security facility tied to cooperation
- Entry into witness protection

A presidential commutation or pardon, will qualify regardless of if directly attributed to cooperation.

Changes to her confinement not clearly tied to cooperation will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Senator Mark Kelly by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Kelly charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be released today?

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Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be released today?

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Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be released today?

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Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be released today?

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