Blue Origin’s January 2026 decision to pause New Shepard suborbital tourism flights for at least two years to prioritize lunar lander development and New Glenn operations has sharply reduced near-term opportunities for crewed flights. With the last passenger missions occurring in late 2025 and no announced schedule for Jeff Bezos to return aboard either the suborbital vehicle or future crewed New Glenn or Blue Moon configurations, the market-implied 85% probability of “No” before 2028 reflects the absence of confirmed launch windows or personal flight commitments. Recovery efforts following the May 2026 New Glenn pad explosion and ongoing satellite constellation work further constrain resources for human spaceflight in the short term.