Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Will Israel withdraw from Philadelphi corridor by March 8?

$94,002 Vol.

<1% chance

Rules

On January 15, Israel reportedly signed an agreement stipulating that they withdraw completely from the Philadelphi corridor "no later than the 50th day after the deal comes into effect" (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/15/what-do-we-know-about-the-israel-gaza-ceasefire-deal) .

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from the Philadelphi corridor in Gaza between January 15 and March 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have completely withdrawn from the Philadelphi corridor in Gaza, regardless of whether some Israeli ground forces remain in the Philadelphi corridor in Gaza. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$94,002
End Date
Mar 8, 2025
Created At
Jan 15, 2025, 10:15 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$94,002 Vol.

Market icon

Will Israel withdraw from Philadelphi corridor by March 8?

<1% chance

About

On January 15, Israel reportedly signed an agreement stipulating that they withdraw completely from the Philadelphi corridor "no later than the 50th day after the deal comes into effect" (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/15/what-do-we-know-about-the-israel-gaza-ceasefire-deal) .

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from the Philadelphi corridor in Gaza between January 15 and March 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have completely withdrawn from the Philadelphi corridor in Gaza, regardless of whether some Israeli ground forces remain in the Philadelphi corridor in Gaza. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$94,002
End Date
Mar 8, 2025
Created At
Jan 15, 2025, 10:15 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.