Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
$801,903 Vol.
None in 2025 84%
Pete Hegseth 10.8%
Stephen Miran 3.0%
Tulsi Gabbard <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
None in 2025
$41,678 Vol.
84%
None in 2025
$41,678 Vol.
84%
Pete Hegseth
$40,426 Vol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$40,426 Vol.
11%
Stephen Miran
$61,157 Vol.
3%
Stephen Miran
$61,157 Vol.
3%
Tulsi Gabbard
$19,271 Vol.
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard
$19,271 Vol.
<1%
Pam Bondi
$15,379 Vol.
<1%
Pam Bondi
$15,379 Vol.
<1%
Scott Bessent
$20,247 Vol.
<1%
Scott Bessent
$20,247 Vol.
<1%
Howard Lutnick
$18,690 Vol.
<1%
Howard Lutnick
$18,690 Vol.
<1%
Kristi Noem
$20,436 Vol.
<1%
Kristi Noem
$20,436 Vol.
<1%
Susie Wiles
$14,828 Vol.
<1%
Susie Wiles
$14,828 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$19,565 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$19,565 Vol.
<1%
Mike Waltz
$16,356 Vol.
<1%
Mike Waltz
$16,356 Vol.
<1%
J.D. Vance
$321,435 Vol.
<1%
J.D. Vance
$321,435 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$18,322 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$18,322 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$8,971 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$8,971 Vol.
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$12,897 Vol.
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$12,897 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$17,834 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$17,834 Vol.
<1%
Scott Turner
$12,985 Vol.
<1%
Scott Turner
$12,985 Vol.
<1%
Sean Duffy
$13,221 Vol.
<1%
Sean Duffy
$13,221 Vol.
<1%
Chris Wright
$13,332 Vol.
<1%
Chris Wright
$13,332 Vol.
<1%
Linda McMahon
$10,418 Vol.
<1%
Linda McMahon
$10,418 Vol.
<1%
Lee Zeldin
$14,721 Vol.
<1%
Lee Zeldin
$14,721 Vol.
<1%
Russell T. Vought
$12,672 Vol.
<1%
Russell T. Vought
$12,672 Vol.
<1%
John Ratcliffe
$11,222 Vol.
<1%
John Ratcliffe
$11,222 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$13,001 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$13,001 Vol.
<1%
Brooke Rollins
$19,693 Vol.
<1%
Brooke Rollins
$19,693 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$13,505 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$13,505 Vol.
<1%
Rules
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Created At: Jul 21, 2025, 10:43 PM
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...$801,903 Vol.
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
None in 2025 84%
Pete Hegseth 10.8%
Stephen Miran 3.0%
Tulsi Gabbard <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
None in 2025
84%
Pete Hegseth
11%
Stephen Miran
3%
Tulsi Gabbard
<1%
Pam Bondi
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Kristi Noem
<1%
Susie Wiles
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Mike Waltz
<1%
J.D. Vance
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Scott Turner
<1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Chris Wright
<1%
Linda McMahon
<1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
Russell T. Vought
<1%
John Ratcliffe
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Brooke Rollins
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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