**Multiple 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive toss-ups or leans, with recent RealClearPolitics averages showing seven of twelve tracked races under three points and several within or near one point.** Retirements in Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio (special), Iowa, Texas, and North Carolina, combined with strong challengers such as Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Roy Cooper in North Carolina, have kept these races unsettled. A Democratic-leaning national generic ballot (roughly +7–8 points) and sustained polling edges for Democratic nominees in most battlegrounds have contributed to trader focus on the narrowest margins. Key upcoming catalysts include final ad waves, candidate debates, and any late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment before November 3. Races such as Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas currently draw the most attention for potential sub-1% finishes due to their structural closeness and polling volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 3, 2026
Iowa
23%
Texas
19%
Maine
18%
Nebraska
16%
New Hampshire
14%
Florida (Special)
12%
Alaska
8%
Ohio (Special)
7%
Michigan
4%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
North Carolina
4%
Montana
3%
Minnesota
2%
Virginia
2%
Georgia
1%
$8,248 Vol.
Iowa
$320 Vol.
23%
Texas
$52 Vol.
19%
Maine
$476 Vol.
18%
Nebraska
$351 Vol.
16%
New Hampshire
$269 Vol.
14%
Florida (Special)
$70 Vol.
12%
Alaska
$1,132 Vol.
8%
Ohio (Special)
$581 Vol.
7%
Michigan
$805 Vol.
4%
New Mexico
$313 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$985 Vol.
4%
North Carolina
$689 Vol.
4%
Montana
$154 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$734 Vol.
2%
Virginia
$157 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$1,160 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive toss-ups or leans, with recent RealClearPolitics averages showing seven of twelve tracked races under three points and several within or near one point.** Retirements in Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio (special), Iowa, Texas, and North Carolina, combined with strong challengers such as Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Roy Cooper in North Carolina, have kept these races unsettled. A Democratic-leaning national generic ballot (roughly +7–8 points) and sustained polling edges for Democratic nominees in most battlegrounds have contributed to trader focus on the narrowest margins. Key upcoming catalysts include final ad waves, candidate debates, and any late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment before November 3. Races such as Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas currently draw the most attention for potential sub-1% finishes due to their structural closeness and polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$8,248End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive toss-ups or leans, with recent RealClearPolitics averages showing seven of twelve tracked races under three points and several within or near one point.** Retirements in Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio (special), Iowa, Texas, and North Carolina, combined with strong challengers such as Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Roy Cooper in North Carolina, have kept these races unsettled. A Democratic-leaning national generic ballot (roughly +7–8 points) and sustained polling edges for Democratic nominees in most battlegrounds have contributed to trader focus on the narrowest margins. Key upcoming catalysts include final ad waves, candidate debates, and any late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment before November 3. Races such as Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas currently draw the most attention for potential sub-1% finishes due to their structural closeness and polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,248End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Multiple 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive toss-ups or leans, with recent RealClearPolitics averages showing seven of twelve tracked races under three points and several within or near one point.** Retirements in Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio (special), Iowa, Texas, and North Carolina, combined with strong challengers such as Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Roy Cooper in North Carolina, have kept these races unsettled. A Democratic-leaning national generic ballot (roughly +7–8 points) and sustained polling edges for Democratic nominees in most battlegrounds have contributed to trader focus on the narrowest margins. Key upcoming catalysts include final ad waves, candidate debates, and any late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment before November 3. Races such as Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas currently draw the most attention for potential sub-1% finishes due to their structural closeness and polling volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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