Recent polling averages place multiple 2026 Senate contests in toss-up territory, including Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, where margins often sit within a few points and could tighten further into election day. Open seats from retirements, combined with Democratic recruitment in traditionally Republican states and a modest national generic ballot edge for Democrats, have narrowed several races. Incumbency advantages for figures such as Susan Collins and Dan Sullivan continue to anchor Republican defenses, while special elections in Florida and Ohio add volatility. Final campaign events, including debates and late-cycle polling releases through October, remain the primary variables that could push additional races inside the one-percent threshold or widen current gaps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMaine
21%
Ohio (Special)
20%
Texas
19%
Alaska
17%
Iowa
15%
New Hampshire
14%
Nebraska
12%
Minnesota
10%
Michigan
8%
Florida (Special)
7%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
North Carolina
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Georgia
1%
$6,212 Vol.
Maine
21%
Ohio (Special)
20%
Texas
19%
Alaska
17%
Iowa
15%
New Hampshire
14%
Nebraska
12%
Minnesota
10%
Michigan
8%
Florida (Special)
7%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
North Carolina
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Georgia
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place multiple 2026 Senate contests in toss-up territory, including Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, where margins often sit within a few points and could tighten further into election day. Open seats from retirements, combined with Democratic recruitment in traditionally Republican states and a modest national generic ballot edge for Democrats, have narrowed several races. Incumbency advantages for figures such as Susan Collins and Dan Sullivan continue to anchor Republican defenses, while special elections in Florida and Ohio add volatility. Final campaign events, including debates and late-cycle polling releases through October, remain the primary variables that could push additional races inside the one-percent threshold or widen current gaps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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