Name: What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?
Start: 2025-10-13T23:29:00.387892Z
End: 2025-10-22T00:00:00Z

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The Tesla (TSLA) 2025 Q3 Earnings Announcement is scheduled to take place on October 22, 2025, at 5:30 PM ET. (https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-third-quarter-2025-production-deliveries-deployments)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by the date the Q4 earnings call begins, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Robotaxi 10+ times

Trump

Robotaxi 5+ times

Optimus

Grok

Acquisition

Inflation

Bigger and longer

Diner

Competition

Tariff

Recession

Optimus 3+ times

China

What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Nike currently scheduled to take place on December 18, 2025 at 5:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Nike say "China" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of FedEx currently scheduled to take place on December 18, 2025 at 4:30 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will FedEx say "E-commerce / Ecommerce" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Santa Claus" in December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 15, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 15 - 21)

Donald Trump is set to make an address on December 17, 2025 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115730644486071082).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled address on December 17, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Border" while addressing the nation on December 17?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

Brian Armstrong is scheduled to participate in Coinbase's product showcase on December 17, 2025 (https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/1990798715997810957).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong says the listed term during his appearance at the named event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Brian Armstrong's appearances at the "Product Showcase: Coinbase System Update 2025" event (https://investor.coinbase.com/events-and-presentations/events/event-details/2025/Product-Showcase-Coinbase-System-Update-2025-Cafj9fkLvm/default.aspx). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the specifically listed events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain Q&As, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or relevant footage is otherwise not aired by December 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Brian Armstrong say "Prediction Market" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and Tucker Carlson is scheduled to speak on December 18 at 7:15PM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where Tucker Carlson is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

This market is explicitly about Tucker Carlson's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 18, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will Tucker Carlson say "Christian" at AmericaFest events on December 18?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the Rocky Mount Events Center on December 19, 2025 (https://www.wral.com/news/local/president-trump-speak-rocky-mount-friday-december-2025/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at Rocky Mount on December 19, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times at Rocky Mount events on Friday?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and Steve Bannon is scheduled to speak on December 19 at 5:59PM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Steve Bannon says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where Steve Bannon is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where Steve Bannon is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Steve Bannon's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 19, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will Steve Bannon say "Deep State" or "Administrative State" at AmericaFest events on December 19?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and JD Vance is scheduled to speak on December 21 at 11:07AM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about JD Vance's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 21, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times at AmericaFest events on December 21?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by January 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Elon Musk as CEO of Tesla by December 31, 2025. 

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Tesla.

The resolution source will be public statements from Tesla.

Will no CEO be announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between December 10, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

Another Elon baby by June 30?

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

Kamala Harris is scheduled to appear on the December 17 broadcast of Jimmy Kimmel Live!: https://www.detpress.com/abc/pressrelease/update-michelle-obama-will-arnett-kamala-harris-macaulay-culkin-and-more-guests-on-abcs-jimmy-kimmel-live-dec-15-19/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris says the listed term at any point during this episode. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded videos are aired where Kamala Harris is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Kamala Harris or ABC, or otherwise is not released by December 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.

Will Kamala Harris say "Trump" on Jimmy Kimmel Live?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Elon Musk has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Elon Musk on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence Elon Musk went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk attends any official UFC match between August 15 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Elon Musk attend a UFC event by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) unfollows Grimes (@Grimezsz) on X at any point between December 10, 2025, 2PM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If either of the ‘@elonmusk’ or ‘@Grimezsz’ X accounts are deleted or disabled this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk X account (@elonmusk), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?

As of market creation, FactSet Research Systems is estimated to release earnings on December 18, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for FactSet Research Systems’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if FactSet Research Systems reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If FactSet Research Systems releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will FactSet Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If this source becomes permanently unavailable in that time period, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If both sources become permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp12042025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.

Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.

The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.

Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

Robotaxi 5+ times
$6,632 Vol.
Yes

Robotaxi 10+ times
$4,282 Vol.
Yes

Bigger and longer
$601 Vol.
No

Optimus
$23,061 Vol.
Yes

Optimus 3+ times
$5,740 Vol.
Yes

Diner
$2,235 Vol.
No

Grok
$3,715 Vol.
Yes

Competition
$5,264 Vol.
Yes

Acquisition
$866 Vol.
No

Tariff
$2,004 Vol.
Yes

Inflation
$558 Vol.
No

Recession
$1,104 Vol.
No

Trump
$2,863 Vol.
No

China
$1,790 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

Rules

What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

Market Context

What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

About

Related

What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

Robotaxi 5+ times$6,632 Vol.Yescircle check

Robotaxi 10+ times$4,282 Vol.Yescircle check

Bigger and longer$601 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Optimus$23,061 Vol.Yescircle check

Optimus 3+ times$5,740 Vol.Yescircle check

Diner$2,235 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Grok$3,715 Vol.Yescircle check

Competition$5,264 Vol.Yescircle check

Acquisition$866 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tariff$2,004 Vol.Yescircle check

Inflation$558 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Recession$1,104 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Trump$2,863 Vol.Nocircle xmark

China$1,790 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

Rules

What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

Market Context

What will Tesla (TSLA) say during their next earnings call?

About

Related

Robotaxi 5+ times
$6,632 Vol.
Yes

Robotaxi 10+ times
$4,282 Vol.
Yes

Bigger and longer
$601 Vol.
No

Optimus
$23,061 Vol.
Yes

Optimus 3+ times
$5,740 Vol.
Yes

Diner
$2,235 Vol.
No

Grok
$3,715 Vol.
Yes

Competition
$5,264 Vol.
Yes

Acquisition
$866 Vol.
No

Tariff
$2,004 Vol.
Yes

Inflation
$558 Vol.
No

Recession
$1,104 Vol.
No

Trump
$2,863 Vol.
No

China
$1,790 Vol.
Yes