**Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty for September 2026 U.S. tornado counts, with probabilities clustered near 50% across bins from under 25 to 125 or more, consistent with the month’s high interannual variability.** September marks a transitional period when convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-layer shear typically decline from summer peaks, yielding a climatological average of roughly 65–75 tornadoes. Early-month activity, including a September 2–3 outbreak producing 14 confirmed tornadoes, has kept near-term outlooks active but with only marginal-to-slight severe risks and low (2%) tornado probabilities in current Storm Prediction Center guidance. Differentiation among bins hinges on whether persistent upper-level troughing, Gulf moisture return, or tropical remnants sustain favorable environments versus rapid stabilization under building high pressure. Model consensus on jet-stream position and frontal passages over the next two weeks will drive revisions, as September totals remain sensitive to the timing and intensity of a few organized events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
125 or more 50%
Under 25 50%
25 - 49 50%
50 - 74 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
50%
25 - 49
50%
50 - 74
50%
75 - 124
50%
125 or more
50%
125 or more 50%
Under 25 50%
25 - 49 50%
50 - 74 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$10 Vol.
50%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
50%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
50%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
50%
125 or more
$25 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty for September 2026 U.S. tornado counts, with probabilities clustered near 50% across bins from under 25 to 125 or more, consistent with the month’s high interannual variability.**
September marks a transitional period when convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-layer shear typically decline from summer peaks, yielding a climatological average of roughly 65–75 tornadoes. Early-month activity, including a September 2–3 outbreak producing 14 confirmed tornadoes, has kept near-term outlooks active but with only marginal-to-slight severe risks and low (2%) tornado probabilities in current Storm Prediction Center guidance. Differentiation among bins hinges on whether persistent upper-level troughing, Gulf moisture return, or tropical remnants sustain favorable environments versus rapid stabilization under building high pressure. Model consensus on jet-stream position and frontal passages over the next two weeks will drive revisions, as September totals remain sensitive to the timing and intensity of a few organized events.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$35End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty for September 2026 U.S. tornado counts, with probabilities clustered near 50% across bins from under 25 to 125 or more, consistent with the month’s high interannual variability.**
September marks a transitional period when convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-layer shear typically decline from summer peaks, yielding a climatological average of roughly 65–75 tornadoes. Early-month activity, including a September 2–3 outbreak producing 14 confirmed tornadoes, has kept near-term outlooks active but with only marginal-to-slight severe risks and low (2%) tornado probabilities in current Storm Prediction Center guidance. Differentiation among bins hinges on whether persistent upper-level troughing, Gulf moisture return, or tropical remnants sustain favorable environments versus rapid stabilization under building high pressure. Model consensus on jet-stream position and frontal passages over the next two weeks will drive revisions, as September totals remain sensitive to the timing and intensity of a few organized events.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$35End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty for September 2026 U.S. tornado counts, with probabilities clustered near 50% across bins from under 25 to 125 or more, consistent with the month’s high interannual variability.** September marks a transitional period when convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-layer shear typically decline from summer peaks, yielding a climatological average of roughly 65–75 tornadoes. Early-month activity, including a September 2–3 outbreak producing 14 confirmed tornadoes, has kept near-term outlooks active but with only marginal-to-slight severe risks and low (2%) tornado probabilities in current Storm Prediction Center guidance. Differentiation among bins hinges on whether persistent upper-level troughing, Gulf moisture return, or tropical remnants sustain favorable environments versus rapid stabilization under building high pressure. Model consensus on jet-stream position and frontal passages over the next two weeks will drive revisions, as September totals remain sensitive to the timing and intensity of a few organized events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions