Tesla (TSLA) share price closed Friday, May 1, at $392.67—solidly in the $390-$395 bin—cementing 100% market-implied odds on Polymarket as traders back verified Nasdaq closing auction data with real capital. This strong consensus stems from intrawweek stability above $390, rebounding from early dips after the April 22 Q1 2026 earnings, which showed profits up 17% year-over-year to $477 million amid robust AI and robotics momentum, offset by elevated capex guidance over $25 billion and softening EV demand signals. Analyst estimate revisions tilted positive on long-term growth prospects versus peers, reflecting wisdom-of-crowds pricing. With resolution imminent, only an improbable official data revision could challenge positioning.