Recent US Drought Monitor data through early October 2026 show 1.3% of the contiguous United States in exceptional (D4) drought, concentrated in central and eastern Texas, Oklahoma, and adjacent portions of Arkansas, with rapid expansion into Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Prolonged September heat and precipitation deficits drove flash drought intensification across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, where soil moisture and streamflow dropped sharply below long-term averages. Authoritative assessments from the National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, and USDA integrate precipitation, temperature, and hydrological indicators on the standard D0–D4 scale. The next weekly map, covering conditions through October 6–7 and released mid-week, will incorporate any early-October rainfall or continued dryness; NOAA’s October outlook favors improvement in parts of the southern Plains and Southeast but notes lingering deficits.
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