Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through early October 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought concentrated in portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and adjacent southern states, driven by record warmth and prolonged rainfall deficits during summer and early fall that produced rapid-onset drought. Nationally, D4 covers about 1.3% of the contiguous United States while broader D1–D4 drought affects nearly 50% of the area. Authoritative assessments from the National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, USDA, and NASA integrate precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow, and vegetation indicators on the standard D0–D4 scale. The Climate Prediction Center’s October outlook favors drought improvement or removal across the southern Plains and Southeast from expected rainfall, though persistence or intensification remains possible in drier northern and western regions. The next USDM update, released Thursdays with data through the prior Tuesday, will directly inform the week-of-October-6 classification by state.
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