Recent polling from late September shows a fragmented field for Sergipe’s two Senate seats, with Delegado André David (Republicanos) holding a lead in first-preference votes while Rogério Carvalho (PT), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), and André Moura (União Brasil) remain closely bunched behind. The race for second place stays tight because each major contender draws support from distinct regional bases and party coalitions ahead of the October 4 vote, and voters select two names on the ballot. No single late surge or consolidation has yet separated the group, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to Carvalho, David, and Moura while assigning lower odds to the remaining field. Further campaign events or turnout shifts in the final days could still reorder the lower tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRogerio Carvalho 30%
Delegado André David 19.5%
André Moura 19%
Delegado Alessandro 11.8%
$31,445 Vol.
$31,445 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rogerio Carvalho
30%
Delegado André David
19%
André Moura
19%
Delegado Alessandro
12%
Eduardo Amorim
11%
Rodrigo Valadares
3%
Edvaldo
1%
Paulinho da União Tur
<1%
Renatinha
<1%
Coronel Rocha
<1%
Iran Barbosa
<1%
Rogerio Carvalho 30%
Delegado André David 19.5%
André Moura 19%
Delegado Alessandro 11.8%
$31,445 Vol.
$31,445 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rogerio Carvalho
$7,891 Vol.
30%
Delegado André David
$4,345 Vol.
19%
André Moura
$5,719 Vol.
19%
Delegado Alessandro
$2,410 Vol.
12%
Eduardo Amorim
$3,186 Vol.
11%
Rodrigo Valadares
$1,759 Vol.
3%
Edvaldo
$1,389 Vol.
1%
Paulinho da União Tur
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
Renatinha
$1,435 Vol.
<1%
Coronel Rocha
$776 Vol.
<1%
Iran Barbosa
$1,411 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late September shows a fragmented field for Sergipe’s two Senate seats, with Delegado André David (Republicanos) holding a lead in first-preference votes while Rogério Carvalho (PT), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), and André Moura (União Brasil) remain closely bunched behind. The race for second place stays tight because each major contender draws support from distinct regional bases and party coalitions ahead of the October 4 vote, and voters select two names on the ballot. No single late surge or consolidation has yet separated the group, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to Carvalho, David, and Moura while assigning lower odds to the remaining field. Further campaign events or turnout shifts in the final days could still reorder the lower tier.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ET
Volume
$31,445End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late September shows a fragmented field for Sergipe’s two Senate seats, with Delegado André David (Republicanos) holding a lead in first-preference votes while Rogério Carvalho (PT), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), and André Moura (União Brasil) remain closely bunched behind. The race for second place stays tight because each major contender draws support from distinct regional bases and party coalitions ahead of the October 4 vote, and voters select two names on the ballot. No single late surge or consolidation has yet separated the group, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to Carvalho, David, and Moura while assigning lower odds to the remaining field. Further campaign events or turnout shifts in the final days could still reorder the lower tier.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$31,445End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent polling from late September shows a fragmented field for Sergipe’s two Senate seats, with Delegado André David (Republicanos) holding a lead in first-preference votes while Rogério Carvalho (PT), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), and André Moura (União Brasil) remain closely bunched behind. The race for second place stays tight because each major contender draws support from distinct regional bases and party coalitions ahead of the October 4 vote, and voters select two names on the ballot. No single late surge or consolidation has yet separated the group, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to Carvalho, David, and Moura while assigning lower odds to the remaining field. Further campaign events or turnout shifts in the final days could still reorder the lower tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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