Recent polling from late September 2026 shows Delegado André David (Republicanos) leading Sergipe's Senate race with 18-20% support for first-choice votes, ahead of Delegado Alessandro (MDB) and incumbent Rogério Carvalho (PT) in the low-to-mid teens, followed by André Moura (União Brasil) and others in single digits. With two seats at stake on October 4 and voters selecting two candidates, the field remains fragmented amid high undecided shares in earlier surveys. Party coalitions, regional alliances, and security-focused messaging have shaped preferences, while limited separation in recent data reflects the competitive positioning among top contenders. Late-campaign events, turnout patterns in key municipalities, and any shifts in voter consolidation could widen gaps before election day.