Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the market as the frontrunner. Recent polling from Real Time Big Data, released September 22, shows him at 43% in the first round against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 38%, a lead outside the margin of error, with Ricardo Marques (PL) at 10% and minor candidates trailing further. A runoff simulation between the top two remains tight within error margins. Mitidieri's advantage stems from incumbency, established voter recognition, and consistent leads in earlier surveys such as Quaest. Valmir's lower 11% price reflects his challenger status despite active campaigning. The first round occurs October 4, with a possible runoff October 25 if no candidate reaches a majority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFábio 85%
Valmir de Francisquinho 11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Dr. Helton <1%
$29,574 Vol.
$29,574 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fábio
85%
Valmir de Francisquinho
11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 85%
Valmir de Francisquinho 11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Dr. Helton <1%
$29,574 Vol.
$29,574 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fábio
$19,025 Vol.
85%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$6,860 Vol.
11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$1,712 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$900 Vol.
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
$634 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the market as the frontrunner. Recent polling from Real Time Big Data, released September 22, shows him at 43% in the first round against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 38%, a lead outside the margin of error, with Ricardo Marques (PL) at 10% and minor candidates trailing further. A runoff simulation between the top two remains tight within error margins. Mitidieri's advantage stems from incumbency, established voter recognition, and consistent leads in earlier surveys such as Quaest. Valmir's lower 11% price reflects his challenger status despite active campaigning. The first round occurs October 4, with a possible runoff October 25 if no candidate reaches a majority.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$29,574End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the market as the frontrunner. Recent polling from Real Time Big Data, released September 22, shows him at 43% in the first round against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 38%, a lead outside the margin of error, with Ricardo Marques (PL) at 10% and minor candidates trailing further. A runoff simulation between the top two remains tight within error margins. Mitidieri's advantage stems from incumbency, established voter recognition, and consistent leads in earlier surveys such as Quaest. Valmir's lower 11% price reflects his challenger status despite active campaigning. The first round occurs October 4, with a possible runoff October 25 if no candidate reaches a majority.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,574End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the market as the frontrunner. Recent polling from Real Time Big Data, released September 22, shows him at 43% in the first round against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 38%, a lead outside the margin of error, with Ricardo Marques (PL) at 10% and minor candidates trailing further. A runoff simulation between the top two remains tight within error margins. Mitidieri's advantage stems from incumbency, established voter recognition, and consistent leads in earlier surveys such as Quaest. Valmir's lower 11% price reflects his challenger status despite active campaigning. The first round occurs October 4, with a possible runoff October 25 if no candidate reaches a majority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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