The tight contest for second place in Roraima’s October 4 Senate election stems from recent polling showing Teresa Surita (MDB), Nicoletti (PL), and Helena da Asatur (PSD) clustered within a few points of one another for the top two spots, with Chico Rodrigues (PSB) and Hélio Bolsonaro (PL) also within reach in a fragmented field of 13 candidates. Voters select two senators in a single round, so minor variations in second-preference consolidation, undecided turnout, or late campaign momentum can reorder the finish. Market pricing reflects this uncertainty, with traders assigning the highest probability to Nicoletti for second while viewing Surita and da Asatur as plausible alternatives depending on final-week shifts. No major endorsements or scandals have altered the race in recent days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNicoletti 46.4%
Teresa Surita 28%
Helena da Asatur 8.2%
Helio Bolsonaro 4.5%
$68,891 Vol.
$68,891 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Nicoletti
46%
Teresa Surita
28%
Helena da Asatur
8%
Helio Bolsonaro
5%
Chico Rodrigues
4%
Mario Rocha
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
<1%
Hilton Xavier
<1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
<1%
Márcio Junqueira
<1%
Pastor Isamar
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
<1%
Rogério Miranda
<1%
Nicoletti 46.4%
Teresa Surita 28%
Helena da Asatur 8.2%
Helio Bolsonaro 4.5%
$68,891 Vol.
$68,891 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Nicoletti
$12,257 Vol.
46%
Teresa Surita
$21,952 Vol.
28%
Helena da Asatur
$4,914 Vol.
8%
Helio Bolsonaro
$9,188 Vol.
5%
Chico Rodrigues
$14,967 Vol.
4%
Mario Rocha
$834 Vol.
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
$581 Vol.
<1%
Hilton Xavier
$529 Vol.
<1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
$569 Vol.
<1%
Márcio Junqueira
$676 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Isamar
$952 Vol.
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
$887 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Miranda
$583 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for second place in Roraima’s October 4 Senate election stems from recent polling showing Teresa Surita (MDB), Nicoletti (PL), and Helena da Asatur (PSD) clustered within a few points of one another for the top two spots, with Chico Rodrigues (PSB) and Hélio Bolsonaro (PL) also within reach in a fragmented field of 13 candidates. Voters select two senators in a single round, so minor variations in second-preference consolidation, undecided turnout, or late campaign momentum can reorder the finish. Market pricing reflects this uncertainty, with traders assigning the highest probability to Nicoletti for second while viewing Surita and da Asatur as plausible alternatives depending on final-week shifts. No major endorsements or scandals have altered the race in recent days.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Volume
$68,891End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for second place in Roraima’s October 4 Senate election stems from recent polling showing Teresa Surita (MDB), Nicoletti (PL), and Helena da Asatur (PSD) clustered within a few points of one another for the top two spots, with Chico Rodrigues (PSB) and Hélio Bolsonaro (PL) also within reach in a fragmented field of 13 candidates. Voters select two senators in a single round, so minor variations in second-preference consolidation, undecided turnout, or late campaign momentum can reorder the finish. Market pricing reflects this uncertainty, with traders assigning the highest probability to Nicoletti for second while viewing Surita and da Asatur as plausible alternatives depending on final-week shifts. No major endorsements or scandals have altered the race in recent days.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$68,891End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for second place in Roraima’s October 4 Senate election stems from recent polling showing Teresa Surita (MDB), Nicoletti (PL), and Helena da Asatur (PSD) clustered within a few points of one another for the top two spots, with Chico Rodrigues (PSB) and Hélio Bolsonaro (PL) also within reach in a fragmented field of 13 candidates. Voters select two senators in a single round, so minor variations in second-preference consolidation, undecided turnout, or late campaign momentum can reorder the finish. Market pricing reflects this uncertainty, with traders assigning the highest probability to Nicoletti for second while viewing Surita and da Asatur as plausible alternatives depending on final-week shifts. No major endorsements or scandals have altered the race in recent days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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