Arthur Henrique maintains a commanding lead in the Roraima gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 25–30 points over Soldado Sampaio and minimal support for other contenders such as Farah Mesquita and Rosi Aires. His strong performance in the June 2026 supplemental election, where he secured over 60% of valid votes despite a pending eligibility challenge over desincompatibilização rules, reinforced his name recognition and organizational strength as the PL candidate and former Boa Vista mayor. Traders price this dominance at 96.9% because surveys through late September show stable voter preferences ahead of the October vote, with limited evidence of momentum shifts. A definitive adverse TSE or STF ruling on candidacy requirements or an unexpected surge in opposition turnout could still alter the outcome before ballots close.