Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the Roraima gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the October 4 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 50-63% support against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) in the low-to-mid 20s to high 30s. His strong performance in the June supplemental election, where he secured over 60% of valid votes despite sub judice status over desincompatibilização timing, bolstered name recognition from two terms as Boa Vista mayor. Backing from the PL and associated figures has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 97.3% implied probability. Minor candidates trail far behind in both polls and market pricing. Late legal rulings on eligibility, a major scandal, or sharp turnout shifts remain the primary factors that could alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Henrique 98.3%
Farah Mesquita <1%
Soldado Sampaio <1%
Clébio Genuíno <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Arthur Henrique
98%
Farah Mesquita
1%
Soldado Sampaio
1%
Clébio Genuíno
1%
Rosi Aires
<1%
Arthur Henrique 98.3%
Farah Mesquita <1%
Soldado Sampaio <1%
Clébio Genuíno <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Arthur Henrique
$5,735 Vol.
98%
Farah Mesquita
$203 Vol.
1%
Soldado Sampaio
$209 Vol.
1%
Clébio Genuíno
$360 Vol.
1%
Rosi Aires
$257 Vol.
<1%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the Roraima gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the October 4 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 50-63% support against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) in the low-to-mid 20s to high 30s. His strong performance in the June supplemental election, where he secured over 60% of valid votes despite sub judice status over desincompatibilização timing, bolstered name recognition from two terms as Boa Vista mayor. Backing from the PL and associated figures has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 97.3% implied probability. Minor candidates trail far behind in both polls and market pricing. Late legal rulings on eligibility, a major scandal, or sharp turnout shifts remain the primary factors that could alter the outcome before election day.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$6,764End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the Roraima gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the October 4 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 50-63% support against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) in the low-to-mid 20s to high 30s. His strong performance in the June supplemental election, where he secured over 60% of valid votes despite sub judice status over desincompatibilização timing, bolstered name recognition from two terms as Boa Vista mayor. Backing from the PL and associated figures has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 97.3% implied probability. Minor candidates trail far behind in both polls and market pricing. Late legal rulings on eligibility, a major scandal, or sharp turnout shifts remain the primary factors that could alter the outcome before election day.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$6,764End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the Roraima gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the October 4 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 50-63% support against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) in the low-to-mid 20s to high 30s. His strong performance in the June supplemental election, where he secured over 60% of valid votes despite sub judice status over desincompatibilização timing, bolstered name recognition from two terms as Boa Vista mayor. Backing from the PL and associated figures has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 97.3% implied probability. Minor candidates trail far behind in both polls and market pricing. Late legal rulings on eligibility, a major scandal, or sharp turnout shifts remain the primary factors that could alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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