**The steep 61% second-weekend drop to $23.3 million firmly anchors trader consensus on the sub-$26 million outcome.** After a franchise-best $60.2 million opening driven by strong previews, positive reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes), and a B+ CinemaScore, the Zach Cregger-directed reboot faced typical horror front-loading plus new competition from titles like the Avengers: Endgame re-release. With 3,684 theaters holding flat and domestic legs tracking around 1.7x, the performance aligns with historical patterns for video-game adaptations and R-rated genre fare that rarely sustain momentum into week two. An upset pushing past $26 million would have required an unusually mild drop below 55% or outsized word-of-mouth gains, neither of which materialized amid the crowded September slate.