**Trader consensus centers on 66-70% turnout as the most likely range for Quebec’s October 5 general election, reflecting a competitive contest that has sustained moderate-to-high engagement.** Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding a lead but short of a majority, with the Liberals, CAQ, and Conservatives splitting the remaining vote and creating numerous close ridings. This fragmentation, combined with debates over sovereignty, cost of living, healthcare, and U.S. trade relations, has kept voter attention elevated through the final weeks of the campaign. Advance voting opportunities in late September have also facilitated participation. Historical Quebec provincial turnout has fluctuated in the low-to-mid 60s in recent cycles, but the current environment of multiple viable parties and clear policy stakes supports probabilities clustering around typical-to-slightly elevated levels rather than extremes.