Rafael Fonteles, the incumbent PT governor seeking re-election in the October 4, 2026 first-round vote, holds near-certain trader consensus at 99.2% because recent polls show him at 55-70% of intentions, far ahead of Joel Rodrigues (PP) and all others. Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-September recorded his approval at 70% and government evaluation as positive among roughly half of voters, supported by his broad coalition and record of state investments across Piauí’s 224 municipalities. Campaign activity remains routine with candidate events and debates producing no measurable shifts. The only plausible paths to altered odds involve a late major scandal, health event, or polling reversal that has not appeared in data from the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRafael Fonteles 99.2%
Dra. Lúcia Santos <1%
Lourdes Melo <1%
Professor Gisvaldo <1%
$57,184 Vol.
$57,184 Vol.
Rafael Fonteles
99%
Dra. Lúcia Santos
<1%
Lourdes Melo
<1%
Professor Gisvaldo
<1%
Santiago Belizário
<1%
Elizeu Aguiar
<1%
Geraldo Carvalho
<1%
Gustavo Feijó
<1%
Joel Rodrigues
<1%
Professor Jurity
<1%
Ravenna da Inclusão
<1%
Rafael Fonteles 99.2%
Dra. Lúcia Santos <1%
Lourdes Melo <1%
Professor Gisvaldo <1%
$57,184 Vol.
$57,184 Vol.
Rafael Fonteles
99%
Dra. Lúcia Santos
<1%
Lourdes Melo
<1%
Professor Gisvaldo
<1%
Santiago Belizário
<1%
Elizeu Aguiar
<1%
Geraldo Carvalho
<1%
Gustavo Feijó
<1%
Joel Rodrigues
<1%
Professor Jurity
<1%
Ravenna da Inclusão
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47de9d...Rafael Fonteles, the incumbent PT governor seeking re-election in the October 4, 2026 first-round vote, holds near-certain trader consensus at 99.2% because recent polls show him at 55-70% of intentions, far ahead of Joel Rodrigues (PP) and all others. Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-September recorded his approval at 70% and government evaluation as positive among roughly half of voters, supported by his broad coalition and record of state investments across Piauí’s 224 municipalities. Campaign activity remains routine with candidate events and debates producing no measurable shifts. The only plausible paths to altered odds involve a late major scandal, health event, or polling reversal that has not appeared in data from the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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