Name: North Korea missile test by January 31?
Start: 2024-12-31T18:51:45.628946Z
End: 2025-01-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile test between December 31, 2024, 10:00 AM ET and January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

North Korea missile test by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea) between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between North Korean and South Korean military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, the deployment of balloons, audio broadcasts, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: South Korea's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not part of the military.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?

If Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un visits the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Kim Jong Un physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Kim Jong Un enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or North Korea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine conducts at least one combat strike using a Tomahawk cruise missiles by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tests used outside of combat will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. or Ukrainian government. Credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent and The Guardian may also be used. 

Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?

If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Jong Un meets with Sanae Takaichi by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Kim Jong Un and Sanae Takaichi are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Kim Jong Un meet with Sanae Takaichi by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, the Israeli government officially and unambiguously acknowledges that it possesses nuclear weapons by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".  

Leaked documents, anonymous sources, or reports from non-Israeli officials will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Israel confirms it has nuclear weapons in 2025?

On June 13, Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the talks must involve official representatives of both governments and focus primarily on nuclear issues, such as uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, IAEA inspections, or the JCPOA. Talks may be direct or mediated, and may occur in person or virtually.

Only the actual resumption of talks will count; announcements that talks have been scheduled to resume will not alone qualify.

Unofficial backchannel communications, general diplomatic meetings not centered on nuclear issues, or one-sided public proposals will not qualify.

The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Afghan soil or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by United States military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by U.S. ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. strikes Afghanistan by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any official Syrian embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US strike on Syria by December 31?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Syria initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between July 24, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Syrian forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of July 24, 2025. This includes the Israeli controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Syria strikes Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the West Bank's soil between November 27, 2025, 3:00 AM IST and the listed date 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the Israeli military that impact the West Bank's ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the West Bank counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the West Bank's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Israeli military will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.

Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US strikes Nigeria by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine conducts at least one combat strike using U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) into Russian territory between November 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tests used outside of combat will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. or Ukrainian government. Credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent, and The Guardian may also be used.

Another ATACMS strike into Russian territory by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- A US-Iran nuclear deal is reached
- Israel confirmed it has nuclear weapons
- Trump says the 'N Word'

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Nuclear+Edition.pdf

North Korea missile test by January 31?

Market Context

North Korea missile test by January 31?

Rules

North Korea missile test by January 31?

Market Context

North Korea missile test by January 31?

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