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icon for NASA Escapade launch by December 31?

NASA Escapade launch by December 31?

icon for NASA Escapade launch by December 31?

NASA Escapade launch by December 31?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$27,364 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$27,364 Vol.

If any rocket carrying the ESCAPADE mission spacecraft successfully launches from its launchpad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM EST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/NASA), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the market outcome. Any name change of the spacecraft will have no bearing on the market outcome.

If any rocket carrying the ESCAPADE mission spacecraft successfully launches from its launchpad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM EST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/NASA), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the market outcome. Any name change of the spacecraft will have no bearing on the market outcome.
If any rocket carrying the ESCAPADE mission spacecraft successfully launches from its launchpad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM EST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/NASA), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the market outcome. Any name change of the spacecraft will have no bearing on the market outcome.
Volume
$27,364
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 10, 2025, 9:27 PM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

If any rocket carrying the ESCAPADE mission spacecraft successfully launches from its launchpad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM EST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/NASA), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the market outcome. Any name change of the spacecraft will have no bearing on the market outcome.

If any rocket carrying the ESCAPADE mission spacecraft successfully launches from its launchpad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM EST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/NASA), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the market outcome. Any name change of the spacecraft will have no bearing on the market outcome.
If any rocket carrying the ESCAPADE mission spacecraft successfully launches from its launchpad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM EST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/NASA), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the market outcome. Any name change of the spacecraft will have no bearing on the market outcome.
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 10, 2025, 9:27 PM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NASA Escapade launch by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NASA Escapade launch by December 31?" has generated $27.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NASA Escapade launch by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "NASA Escapade launch by December 31?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "NASA Escapade launch by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.