Microsoft's share price has traded in a tight band near $490–$505 through the week of September 14, 2026, with the Friday close settling around $494–$497 and producing a 94% market-implied probability for the $490–$500 bin. Recent fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, including 18% revenue growth to $90 billion and Azure surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, reinforced underlying demand for cloud and AI offerings, while a September 15 dividend increase of 8% to $0.98 per share provided additional support. Trading volume and intraday ranges have remained consistent with this consolidation zone rather than signaling a breakout, aligning trader consensus with the observed price path. The next earnings release on October 28 offers the primary upcoming catalyst that could shift positioning if results or guidance deviate materially from current expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$490-$500 100.0%
<$450 <1%
$450-$460 <1%
$460-$470 <1%
$613 Vol.
$613 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
<$450
No
$450-$460
No
$460-$470
No
$470-$480
No
$480-$490
No
$490-$500
Yes
$500-$510
No
$510-$520
No
$520-$530
No
$530-$540
No
>$540
No
$490-$500 100.0%
<$450 <1%
$450-$460 <1%
$460-$470 <1%
$613 Vol.
$613 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
<$450
$27 Vol.
No
$450-$460
$27 Vol.
No
$460-$470
$27 Vol.
No
$470-$480
$27 Vol.
No
$480-$490
$17 Vol.
No
$490-$500
$173 Vol.
Yes
$500-$510
$27 Vol.
No
$510-$520
$27 Vol.
No
$520-$530
$27 Vol.
No
$530-$540
$27 Vol.
No
>$540
$207 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft's share price has traded in a tight band near $490–$505 through the week of September 14, 2026, with the Friday close settling around $494–$497 and producing a 94% market-implied probability for the $490–$500 bin. Recent fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, including 18% revenue growth to $90 billion and Azure surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, reinforced underlying demand for cloud and AI offerings, while a September 15 dividend increase of 8% to $0.98 per share provided additional support. Trading volume and intraday ranges have remained consistent with this consolidation zone rather than signaling a breakout, aligning trader consensus with the observed price path. The next earnings release on October 28 offers the primary upcoming catalyst that could shift positioning if results or guidance deviate materially from current expectations.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$613End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft's share price has traded in a tight band near $490–$505 through the week of September 14, 2026, with the Friday close settling around $494–$497 and producing a 94% market-implied probability for the $490–$500 bin. Recent fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, including 18% revenue growth to $90 billion and Azure surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, reinforced underlying demand for cloud and AI offerings, while a September 15 dividend increase of 8% to $0.98 per share provided additional support. Trading volume and intraday ranges have remained consistent with this consolidation zone rather than signaling a breakout, aligning trader consensus with the observed price path. The next earnings release on October 28 offers the primary upcoming catalyst that could shift positioning if results or guidance deviate materially from current expectations.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Volume
$613End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Microsoft's share price has traded in a tight band near $490–$505 through the week of September 14, 2026, with the Friday close settling around $494–$497 and producing a 94% market-implied probability for the $490–$500 bin. Recent fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, including 18% revenue growth to $90 billion and Azure surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, reinforced underlying demand for cloud and AI offerings, while a September 15 dividend increase of 8% to $0.98 per share provided additional support. Trading volume and intraday ranges have remained consistent with this consolidation zone rather than signaling a breakout, aligning trader consensus with the observed price path. The next earnings release on October 28 offers the primary upcoming catalyst that could shift positioning if results or guidance deviate materially from current expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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