Microsoft's post-earnings rally following its July 29 fiscal Q4 beat—$4.74 adjusted EPS versus $4.24 expected and $90.01 billion revenue—has anchored trader sentiment around the $500–$510 close for the week of August 3. Azure and AI-driven cloud momentum, paired with raised capital expenditure guidance, fueled an initial 8%+ surge and subsequent trading near $488–$503 levels through early August. With the next earnings slated for late October and no major macro or regulatory overhangs in the immediate window, the market-implied odds reflect sustained momentum in AI monetization and steady institutional positioning rather than near-term catalysts that would push prices decisively higher or trigger a pullback.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$490-$500 100.0%
<$420 <1%
$420-$430 <1%
$430-$440 <1%
$6,838 Vol.
$6,838 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
<$420
No
$420-$430
No
$430-$440
No
$440-$450
No
$450-$460
No
$460-$470
No
$470-$480
No
$480-$490
No
$490-$500
Yes
$500-$510
No
>$510
No
$490-$500 100.0%
<$420 <1%
$420-$430 <1%
$430-$440 <1%
$6,838 Vol.
$6,838 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
<$420
$2,301 Vol.
No
$420-$430
$173 Vol.
No
$430-$440
$53 Vol.
No
$440-$450
$20 Vol.
No
$450-$460
$45 Vol.
No
$460-$470
$165 Vol.
No
$470-$480
$145 Vol.
No
$480-$490
$0 Vol.
No
$490-$500
$0 Vol.
Yes
$500-$510
$3,744 Vol.
No
>$510
$193 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft's post-earnings rally following its July 29 fiscal Q4 beat—$4.74 adjusted EPS versus $4.24 expected and $90.01 billion revenue—has anchored trader sentiment around the $500–$510 close for the week of August 3. Azure and AI-driven cloud momentum, paired with raised capital expenditure guidance, fueled an initial 8%+ surge and subsequent trading near $488–$503 levels through early August. With the next earnings slated for late October and no major macro or regulatory overhangs in the immediate window, the market-implied odds reflect sustained momentum in AI monetization and steady institutional positioning rather than near-term catalysts that would push prices decisively higher or trigger a pullback.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$6,838End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft's post-earnings rally following its July 29 fiscal Q4 beat—$4.74 adjusted EPS versus $4.24 expected and $90.01 billion revenue—has anchored trader sentiment around the $500–$510 close for the week of August 3. Azure and AI-driven cloud momentum, paired with raised capital expenditure guidance, fueled an initial 8%+ surge and subsequent trading near $488–$503 levels through early August. With the next earnings slated for late October and no major macro or regulatory overhangs in the immediate window, the market-implied odds reflect sustained momentum in AI monetization and steady institutional positioning rather than near-term catalysts that would push prices decisively higher or trigger a pullback.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Volume
$6,838End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Microsoft's post-earnings rally following its July 29 fiscal Q4 beat—$4.74 adjusted EPS versus $4.24 expected and $90.01 billion revenue—has anchored trader sentiment around the $500–$510 close for the week of August 3. Azure and AI-driven cloud momentum, paired with raised capital expenditure guidance, fueled an initial 8%+ surge and subsequent trading near $488–$503 levels through early August. With the next earnings slated for late October and no major macro or regulatory overhangs in the immediate window, the market-implied odds reflect sustained momentum in AI monetization and steady institutional positioning rather than near-term catalysts that would push prices decisively higher or trigger a pullback.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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