Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" electrified traders with confirmed opening weekend estimates of $97 million domestic, landing firmly in the 95-100m strike and shattering records for musical biopics ahead of "Straight Outta Compton" ($60M) and "Bohemian Rhapsody" ($51M). Surging presales, record $12.6 million Thursday previews, and a massive $39.5 million Friday propelled the momentum, as audience scores trumped poor critical reception amid nostalgia for the King of Pop and Jaafar Jackson's uncanny performance. Tracking escalated from $50-60 million a month ago to $85-105 million pre-release, fueled by global buzz including strong China pre-sales. Final studio tallies due Monday are unlikely to shift below 95 million, though an improbable audit downgrade could enable a rare upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
"Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
95-100m 100.0%
<80m <1%
80-85m <1%
85-90m <1%
$416,955 Vol.
$416,955 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
<80m
No
80-85m
No
85-90m
No
90-95m
No
95-100m
Yes
>100m
No
95-100m 100.0%
<80m <1%
80-85m <1%
85-90m <1%
$416,955 Vol.
$416,955 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
<80m
$54,335 Vol.
No
80-85m
$36,735 Vol.
No
85-90m
$47,142 Vol.
No
90-95m
$71,359 Vol.
No
95-100m
$98,577 Vol.
Yes
>100m
$108,807 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" electrified traders with confirmed opening weekend estimates of $97 million domestic, landing firmly in the 95-100m strike and shattering records for musical biopics ahead of "Straight Outta Compton" ($60M) and "Bohemian Rhapsody" ($51M). Surging presales, record $12.6 million Thursday previews, and a massive $39.5 million Friday propelled the momentum, as audience scores trumped poor critical reception amid nostalgia for the King of Pop and Jaafar Jackson's uncanny performance. Tracking escalated from $50-60 million a month ago to $85-105 million pre-release, fueled by global buzz including strong China pre-sales. Final studio tallies due Monday are unlikely to shift below 95 million, though an improbable audit downgrade could enable a rare upset.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$416,955End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" electrified traders with confirmed opening weekend estimates of $97 million domestic, landing firmly in the 95-100m strike and shattering records for musical biopics ahead of "Straight Outta Compton" ($60M) and "Bohemian Rhapsody" ($51M). Surging presales, record $12.6 million Thursday previews, and a massive $39.5 million Friday propelled the momentum, as audience scores trumped poor critical reception amid nostalgia for the King of Pop and Jaafar Jackson's uncanny performance. Tracking escalated from $50-60 million a month ago to $85-105 million pre-release, fueled by global buzz including strong China pre-sales. Final studio tallies due Monday are unlikely to shift below 95 million, though an improbable audit downgrade could enable a rare upset.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$416,955End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" electrified traders with confirmed opening weekend estimates of $97 million domestic, landing firmly in the 95-100m strike and shattering records for musical biopics ahead of "Straight Outta Compton" ($60M) and "Bohemian Rhapsody" ($51M). Surging presales, record $12.6 million Thursday previews, and a massive $39.5 million Friday propelled the momentum, as audience scores trumped poor critical reception amid nostalgia for the King of Pop and Jaafar Jackson's uncanny performance. Tracking escalated from $50-60 million a month ago to $85-105 million pre-release, fueled by global buzz including strong China pre-sales. Final studio tallies due Monday are unlikely to shift below 95 million, though an improbable audit downgrade could enable a rare upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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