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"Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office

icon for "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office

"Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office

Ended: Apr 27

May 11

May 11

May 11

May 11

Ended: Apr 27

May 11

May 11

May 11

May 11

>80m 100.0%

<60m <1%

60-65m <1%

65-70m <1%

Polymarket

$463,256 Vol.

>80m 100.0%

<60m <1%

60-65m <1%

65-70m <1%

Polymarket

$463,256 Vol.

<60m

$82,884 Vol.

No

60-65m

$23,376 Vol.

No

65-70m

$39,662 Vol.

No

70-75m

$67,833 Vol.

No

75-80m

$33,678 Vol.

No

>80m

$215,823 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Michael Jackson biopic "Michael," directed by Antoine Fuqua and starring Jaafar Jackson, blasted past expectations with a record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend gross from April 24-26, securing its lock as the biggest debut ever for a music biopic and eclipsing predecessors like "Bohemian Rhapsody." Massive $12.6 million in Wednesday-Thursday previews and a $39.5 million Friday fueled the surge, driven by die-hard fan turnout that shrugged off production controversies and middling reviews, with global earnings hitting $217 million. Trader consensus reflects confirmed studio tallies from Deadline and others, leaving negligible room for upset barring unprecedented final adjustments—markets now eye multiverse longevity against holdover competition like "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie."

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$463,256
End Date
Apr 27, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Michael Jackson biopic "Michael," directed by Antoine Fuqua and starring Jaafar Jackson, blasted past expectations with a record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend gross from April 24-26, securing its lock as the biggest debut ever for a music biopic and eclipsing predecessors like "Bohemian Rhapsody." Massive $12.6 million in Wednesday-Thursday previews and a $39.5 million Friday fueled the surge, driven by die-hard fan turnout that shrugged off production controversies and middling reviews, with global earnings hitting $217 million. Trader consensus reflects confirmed studio tallies from Deadline and others, leaving negligible room for upset barring unprecedented final adjustments—markets now eye multiverse longevity against holdover competition like "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie."

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$463,256
End Date
Apr 27, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">80m" at 100%, followed by "<60m" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, ""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office" has generated $463.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on ""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for ""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office" is ">80m" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<60m" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for ""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.