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Lula out before April?

Market icon

Lula out before April?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$57,414 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$57,414 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces his resignation or otherwise ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time between December 10, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lula ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Lula has remained President of Brazil for the entire duration without interruption. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces his resignation or otherwise ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time between December 10, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lula ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Lula has remained President of Brazil for the entire duration without interruption.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$57,414
End Date
Mar 31, 2025
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2024, 7:59 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces his resignation or otherwise ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time between December 10, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lula ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Lula has remained President of Brazil for the entire duration without interruption. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces his resignation or otherwise ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time between December 10, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lula ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Lula has remained President of Brazil for the entire duration without interruption. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces his resignation or otherwise ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time between December 10, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lula ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Lula has remained President of Brazil for the entire duration without interruption.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$57,414
End Date
Jan 31, 2025
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2024, 7:59 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces his resignation or otherwise ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time between December 10, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lula ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Lula has remained President of Brazil for the entire duration without interruption. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lula out before April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lula out before April?" has generated $57.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lula out before April?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Lula out before April?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Lula out before April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.