**GitHub's pattern of frequent but variable-length incidents drives the close contest between 6-12 hour (30%) and 1-3 hour (22.5%) outcomes for the longest critical incident in September.** Recent reliability data shows dozens of major outages per year, with GitHub Actions, Git operations, and core APIs often involved; average mean time to resolution (MTTR) for significant events has hovered around 6 hours in tracked periods through mid-2026. Shorter degradations from configuration changes or localized issues resolve in under 3 hours more often than not, while longer disruptions—triggered by database routing failures, third-party provider problems, or scaling strains amid user growth—push into the 6-12+ hour range, as seen in multi-hour incidents from late 2025 and early 2026. The market's tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether September will feature a typical cluster of brief events or one extended critical outage, with traders weighting historical MTTR trends and the platform's ongoing challenges maintaining consistent uptime above 99% across services.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6-12 hours 30%
1-3 hours 23%
12+ hours 15%
<1 hour 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1 hour
15%
1-3 hours
23%
3-6 hours
15%
6-12 hours
30%
12+ hours
15%
6-12 hours 30%
1-3 hours 23%
12+ hours 15%
<1 hour 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1 hour
$484 Vol.
15%
1-3 hours
$66 Vol.
23%
3-6 hours
$46 Vol.
15%
6-12 hours
$322 Vol.
30%
12+ hours
$110 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**GitHub's pattern of frequent but variable-length incidents drives the close contest between 6-12 hour (30%) and 1-3 hour (22.5%) outcomes for the longest critical incident in September.** Recent reliability data shows dozens of major outages per year, with GitHub Actions, Git operations, and core APIs often involved; average mean time to resolution (MTTR) for significant events has hovered around 6 hours in tracked periods through mid-2026.
Shorter degradations from configuration changes or localized issues resolve in under 3 hours more often than not, while longer disruptions—triggered by database routing failures, third-party provider problems, or scaling strains amid user growth—push into the 6-12+ hour range, as seen in multi-hour incidents from late 2025 and early 2026. The market's tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether September will feature a typical cluster of brief events or one extended critical outage, with traders weighting historical MTTR trends and the platform's ongoing challenges maintaining consistent uptime above 99% across services.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
Volume
$1,029End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**GitHub's pattern of frequent but variable-length incidents drives the close contest between 6-12 hour (30%) and 1-3 hour (22.5%) outcomes for the longest critical incident in September.** Recent reliability data shows dozens of major outages per year, with GitHub Actions, Git operations, and core APIs often involved; average mean time to resolution (MTTR) for significant events has hovered around 6 hours in tracked periods through mid-2026.
Shorter degradations from configuration changes or localized issues resolve in under 3 hours more often than not, while longer disruptions—triggered by database routing failures, third-party provider problems, or scaling strains amid user growth—push into the 6-12+ hour range, as seen in multi-hour incidents from late 2025 and early 2026. The market's tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether September will feature a typical cluster of brief events or one extended critical outage, with traders weighting historical MTTR trends and the platform's ongoing challenges maintaining consistent uptime above 99% across services.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,029End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**GitHub's pattern of frequent but variable-length incidents drives the close contest between 6-12 hour (30%) and 1-3 hour (22.5%) outcomes for the longest critical incident in September.** Recent reliability data shows dozens of major outages per year, with GitHub Actions, Git operations, and core APIs often involved; average mean time to resolution (MTTR) for significant events has hovered around 6 hours in tracked periods through mid-2026. Shorter degradations from configuration changes or localized issues resolve in under 3 hours more often than not, while longer disruptions—triggered by database routing failures, third-party provider problems, or scaling strains amid user growth—push into the 6-12+ hour range, as seen in multi-hour incidents from late 2025 and early 2026. The market's tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether September will feature a typical cluster of brief events or one extended critical outage, with traders weighting historical MTTR trends and the platform's ongoing challenges maintaining consistent uptime above 99% across services.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions