Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Khamenei public appearance by...?

Market icon

Khamenei public appearance by...?

$1,120,014 Vol.

Mar 14, 2026
Polymarket

$1,120,014 Vol.

Polymarket

February 28

$280,518 Vol.

No

March 1

$333,502 Vol.

No

March 2

$86,270 Vol.

No

March 3

$71,313 Vol.

No

March 4

$56,901 Vol.

No

March 7

$88,515 Vol.

No

March 14

$202,994 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Ali Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Volume
$1,120,014
End Date
Mar 14, 2026
Created At
Feb 28, 2026, 11:44 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Ali Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Khamenei public appearance by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "February 28" at 0%, followed by "March 1" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Khamenei public appearance by...?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Khamenei public appearance by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Khamenei public appearance by...?" is "February 28" at just 0%, with "March 1" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Khamenei public appearance by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.